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Economics of Contemporary Russia

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No 4 (2021)
https://doi.org/10.33293/1609-1442-2021-4(95)

ACTUAL PROBLEMS OF ECONOMICS

7-15 803
Abstract

The aim of the study is to verify the theoretical content of the digital economy. Within the framework of the set goal, the following tasks were solved: substantiation the fragmentation of private analytical developments and the lack of their necessary generalization for comprehensive disclosure of the essence of the phenomenon of the digital economy; characterization of current trends in financial markets, in the spheres of production and employment of the population; disclosure of the socio-economic essence of the virtual space; forecasting the main contours of the material basis of the future. The article discusses the basic provisions of the theory of digital economy, synthesizing the practical experience of its formation in the Russian society. The new content of commodity-money relations, the leading role of intangible assets in it, the objective nature of the monopoly of electronic money, which has lost a number of its specific functions, and the transformation of monetary institutions into multi-disciplinary financial concerns are substantiated.

16-19 576
Abstract

The article is devoted to analyzing realization of the declared recently thesis on general digital transformation of Russian economy and real situation connected with implementing national program and project “Digital Economy of the RF”. As an example a construction industry and agriculture are regarded. A conclusion is made that valuable digitalization of these industries is impossible without changing the economic strategy of the country. The present construction boom causes huge inflow of migrants, who cannot use digital technologies, and makes living in large cities more and more discomforting. And to speak on digitalization of agriculture on the whole doesn›t make sense at all. Fair realization of separate projects in different industries of agro-industry complex that allow getting maximally rapid effect from their introduction is possible.

20-35 644
Abstract

The processes of industrialization, reindustrialization and new industrialization differ not only in the content and mechanisms of implementation, but also in the set of resources required for their application. New industrialization as a process of quantitative and qualitative changes in the economy is based on a complex of resources. These resources are necessary, on the one hand, for the modernization of traditional industries, and on the other hand, for the formation of promising economic activities and industries. Keeping a balance between the resources used to achieve the goals of modernization and innovative development in order to achieve the goals of modernization and innovative development is one of the tasks of a methodological nature and requires the development of appropriate theoretical approaches and models. At the same time, the second most important task is the application of such theories and concepts that will provide a solution to the problems associated with the identification, assessment and description of the parametric characteristics and functions of resources in the system of industrial development of the domestic economy. To solve these problems, the article highlights the features of new industrialization; its differences from such phenomena as industrialization, deindustrialization and reindustrialization. It is substantiated that the use of the resource concept as a methodological basis for new industrialization will make it possible to determine the following: to draw up a typology of the resources of new industrialization; identify criteria for strategic and complementary resources of new industrialization; to identify the subjects of relations in the resource allocation system, as well as their specific functions. The article concludes that modernization processes are provided mainly by massive resources and complementary capabilities and competencies, while the processes of innovative and technological development within the framework of the new industrialization of the economy presuppose the presence of strategic, unique resources and competencies.

35-48 684
Abstract

One of the directions that can expand the instrumental base for modeling the economy is complex-valued economics – ​a section of economic and mathematical modeling devoted to the use of models and methods of the theory of the function of a complex variable in economics. The article discusses the possibility of short-term economic forecasting using autoregressive models of complex variables. A classification of possible modifications of complex-valued autoregressive models is given, and the main properties of each of the classes of these models are shown. One of the varieties of these complex-valued models uses current and past errors of approximation, which means that it can be compared with the widely used model of autoregressive real variables ARIMA(p, d, q). The article makes such a comparison, both on a theoretical level and on a practical example.

ECONOMICAL POLICY AND ECONOMICAL PRACTICE

49-67 788
Abstract

This paper developed a theoretical model of partial equilibrium of the export-oriented market for a short-term period, as well as outlined the main approaches to modeling equilibrium in a long-term period. Thus, the competition between the producers of the selected exporting country and its global competitor in the external import-dependent market is considered. In the partial equilibrium model, for the first time, the domestic and foreign sales markets are presented together. The analysis of the theoretical model made it possible to obtain the following results for the short-term period: in a state close to equilibrium, external supplies of the exporting country are positively related to their own production volumes and negatively – ​with the production volumes of the global exporter; the price of the domestic market of the exporting country is negatively related to the volume of its own production and the volume of production of the global exporter. The paper analyzes three scenarios that allow checking the adequacy of the partial equilibrium model for different conditions of its application. The first scenario considers a negative supply shock associated with a drop in production in a global exporter. The second analyzes the impact of the pandemic on the global exporter and exporting country. The third scenario is devoted to assessing the impact of a demand shock on a designated exporting country. The scenarios confirmed the adequacy of the model. The approach to modeling an export-oriented market for a long-term period is based on the assumption that the exporter's price will converge with the price of the domestic market over time and, ultimately, will differ from it only by the amount of additional costs associated with the export of a unit of production. It was established that, while maintaining exogenous conditions for positive long-term export dynamics, the price of the domestic market of the exporting country will decrease in case of an increase in the incremental values of exports and production volumes of the global exporter. The consequences of the positive dynamics of exports for the domestic demand of the exporting country are considered. The established relationships between exports and sales in the exporter's domestic market were empirically confirmed by the example of the Russian sunflower oil market.

68-77 833
Abstract

The article deals with the relationship between the economic growth of Russia and the dynamics of average wages. A joint analysis of wages, GDP, salary output and labor productivity in the Russian Federation for the period 2000–2019 was carried out. The type and parameters of the regression equations connecting these indicators are determined. The analysis allows us to conclude that it is advisable to increase real wages, despite the accompanying slow growth of labor productivity and a decrease in salary. The main argument in favor of this statement is the multiplicative effect that occurs when the average salary in the economy increases. The paper shows that the increase in wages, in addition to the usually taken into account direct multiplicative effect, determined by an increase in the disposable income of the population, there is an additional induced multiplicative effect. The induced effect is explained by the increase in economic activity of the population proved on the Russian statistics with the growth of wages, which leads to an increase in the number of employees, and hence the wage fund and, accordingly, personal disposable income. Thus, by increasing wages, it is possible to improve the financial situation of the employed population, attract additional labor resources to the economy, and achieve GDP growth. The article presents calculations that allow us to estimate the contribution of the direct and induced multiplicative effect to the GDP of Russia for the period of 2000–2017. Based on these calculations, it can be argued that in the Russian Federation at the beginning of the XXI century, the gross domestic product, due to the multiplicative effect of changes in average wages in the first year after such a change, increased or decreased in some years by 6–7%. Although the induced multiplicative effect, as it turned out, is relatively small, there is no reason to neglect it. At the current very low rate of GDP growth, one has to take into account every tenth of a percent of such growth, and calculations have shown that the induced effect calculated for the first year after the change in wages in the period under review reached 0,6% of GDP. The calculations also showed that due to the increase in labor activity associated with an increase in the average salary, the number of people employed in the “white” labor market in Russia in some years increased by about 1%.

78-88 604
Abstract

The article deals with the formation and use of the business activity index for the analysis, forecasting and regulation of the development of the Russian economy. The possibilities of forming the Business Activity Index of the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences by basic spheres of the economy (Index of the Institute of Economics RAS) are analyzed and its advantages are substantiated in comparison with the Index of Output of Goods and Services by the basic types of economic activities of Rosstat (Rosstat Index). The analysis of the dynamics of the IE RAS Index and the Rosstat Index after the socio-economic crisis of 2014–2015 until the second half of 2021, including the period of the coronavirus pandemic, has been carried out. A list of macroeconomic indicators characterizing the level of business activity in the spheres of the national economy included in the IE RAS Index is presented. Analysis and comparison of the dynamics of the IE RAS and Rosstat indices showed that the main advantages of the IE RAS Index lie in a more accurate determination of the timing of the onset and overcoming of crisis processes, as well as the depth of their impact on socio-economic development. Particular attention is paid to the analysis and comparison of the dynamics of business activity in the post-crisis and pandemic periods. It was found that the maximum drop in business activity, caused largely by restrictive measures in connection with the coronavirus pandemic, was observed in 2020. It is noted that the maximum growth in business activity for the period under review fell on the first half of 2021. This growth is confirmed by the dynamics of business activity indices according to the methodology of the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences and Rosstat. The paper concludes that the IE RAS Index provides a more accurate integral assessment of the macroeconomic dynamics of business activity; it is proposed to widely use it in state accounting and management, forecasting and strategic planning.

89-97 495
Abstract

Recent years were a transformation period of the analytic systems to support management decision-making on continuously available open data away from official periodic reports. In this regard, the system of control and supervision of management objects by the state controlling bodies is changing, new sources of information are included; monitoring of the external environment and media space is introduced. The author proposes an approach to the formation of a generalized key indicator for rapid assessment of the object of management (on the example of an industrial enterprise) on the basis of open data from the Internet. The object of the research is developing universal comprehensive indicator for rapid assessment of the compliance of the economic object of management on the part of regulators or relevant services on the basis of structured and unstructured data from the Internet. Scientific novelty of the study is to propose the concept of building a universal comprehensive indicator (UCI) based on a logical function that uses an extended set of arguments, including both continuous and discrete variables. Transformation into the values of the indicator is proposed using the logical rules, given the requirements for the control object from the regulators. Main results of the work: the concept of constructing universal comprehensive indicator allowing to get an express assessment of the state of the object in control was developed. The algorithm was tested to assess the need and feasibility for the state authorities in the financial assistance of the Moscow industrial enterprise. The approach in this research is applicable to current monitoring of the situation due to official reporting at the tactical level of management.

97-109 609
Abstract

The article presents the position of the author, relating to such an important economic concept as oil rent. The oil rent of the country, estimated in the world economic space, is determined and considered. A mathematical model is presented that allows calculating such rent using available statistical information. The method of obtaining initial data is described and the results of specific applied calculations are given. The interpretation of oil rents as super-profits of oil companies, established in economic science, affects, according to the author, only a part of the economic benefits that the country receives by developing its oil fields. If we consider such deposits as a natural gift, then it is possible, according to the author, to estimate the full size of this gift only as a result of comparing the real situation with the virtual one, in which there are no such deposits or they are, but are not exploited. The result of such a comparison is considered in the article as the oil rent of the country, estimated in the world economic space. As an illustration, the results of calculations of the oil rent of the Russian Federation for 2011, 2013, 2015 and 2018 are given. А brief analysis of the results obtained and their dependence on external economic circumstances is given. For the purpose of comparison, the calculation of the oil rent of Saudi Arabia for 2018 is given.

109-120 750
Abstract

The article discusses the ambiguous results of the reform of the Russian electric power industry. Some of the intended goals of the reform have been achieved, while others have not yet been achieved, and the reform should be continued. Although more than 13 years have passed since the final stage of the reform, there is no agreement in the literature on many key issues characterizing the reform: an explanation of the reasons and factors that influenced the decision to reform the Russian electric power industry, the goals of the reform, the type of the reform model, the validity of its adaptation to the real Russian conditions and institutions that had developed by the beginning of the reform, the results of the reform and their value for society. It was found that contradictory results of the reform are caused by both objective and subjective factors. Along with obvious successes (e.g., denationalization of the industry) and obvious failures (including failure to create retail electricity markets) many results (elimination of vertical integration, level of competition on wholesale electricity markets, etc.) are not observable and have not received a clear and unambiguous assessment of their usefulness to society. Studies using modern economic theory and economic-mathematical modeling were required. No statistically significant economies of scale in electricity generation have been found in large companies generating electricity. Thus, the use of competition as a mechanism to coordinate the interests of society, producers and consumers of electricity and the creation of a wholesale electricity market is scientifically justified. Unification of small producers for their withdrawal to the wholesale electricity market should be accompanied by an economic analysis of the cost function of the united company. It is shown that in the short term the wholesale electricity market created in the first and second price zones is close to competitive, but in the long term there is a threat: this market may become uncompetitive.

ECONOMIC DISCUSSION

122-127 705
Abstract

The article shows that in the USSR, the development of associated social creativity (including such a phenomenon as “enthusiasm”), based on public property, was opposite to the opinions of most economists one of the important sources of development of this economic system. At the same time, the opposite content was hidden behind the form of public property in the USSR – ​the alienation of workers from the functions of management and appropriation of public wealth due to the bureaucratization of state property, which was the main brake on the development of the economy in which these property relations dominated. The analysis of this contradiction shows that public property most fully realizes its potential either as a state property (in such extreme conditions as wars, global catastrophes, etc.), or to the extent it is based on associated social creativity. The potential of public disposal and appropriation based on social creativity is especially great in the field of production of public goods (education, health care, art), where public ownership of the results of creative work can take the form of “everyone's ownership of everything”, which makes it possible to remove the restrictions of intellectual private property.

127-132 976
Abstract

Planning has become widespread in countries with different socio-economic systems. At the same time, both the evaluation of the results of using planned methods and these planned methods themselves have significant differences. They depend both on the features of the socio-economic systems in which planning was applied, and on the tasks that it solved. To study these dependencies, it is useful to turn to the experience of planning in the USSR, which demonstrates different options for using planning methods. During the years of the new economic policy, planning functioned in the conditions of a broad development of market and capitalist relations. Therefore, the planning methods were adapted to the market conditions. The planning itself was mainly indicative, and the achievement of planned results was built by influencing the economic interests of economic entities. Therefore, it is possible to find a significant similarity in the model of Soviet planning during the years of the new economic policy and those planning methods that were used in the post-war period in Europe, Japan, and then in the new industrial countries. The model of directive planning, which was developed in the USSR in the 1930s of the twentieth century, provided both certain advantages in the development of the economy (the mobilization and concentration of significant masses of resources for deep structural changes in the economy, the implementation of large scientific, technical and social projects), and was burdened with serious contradictions. The Soviet model of directive planning did not have effective institutions that expressed the economic interests of enterprises and their collectives, did not create incentives for technical re-equipment of existing enterprises, and ultimately led to the predominance of the interests of the top government departments. To prevent the development of such contradictions, one-sided reflection of the interests of narrow social groups, the planned system should be built on democratic grounds.

133-137 530
Abstract

The article shows that at present the processes of total marketization have spread to the sphere of artistic culture, in which more and more the value of a creator and the results of his activity is evaluated in terms of market and capital. It becomes one of the factors of the economy stagnation that lasts for decades, in particular, in Russia. Meanwhile, the existing experience of modernization in the USSR shows that there is a powerful feedback when culture and, in particular, art, become an important factor and conceptual vector of socio-economic and technological modernization. The means for this can be and have been historically long-term strategic development programs linking together technological, scientific, economic, educational and cultural transformations, mass labor enthusiasm, the inclusion of workers in social creativity and other relations and institutions that transform a person from a passive object (an employee, consumer) into an active creator. The history of the USSR gives contradictory examples of such relations formation (the GOELRO plan, etc.).

138-142 827
Abstract

The article examines the experience of the USSR in the field of solving the problem of correlation between social justice and economic efficiency. The characteristics of those aspects of Soviet experience in the sphere of implementation of social justice principles in the sphere of labor and distribution, which have potential for application in the conditions of modern capitalism to respond to the current challenges, are outlined. Firstly, it is noted that social justice is not reduced to inequality of income and distribution of wealth but is considered in connection with the human factor of economic development. In an expanded understanding, social justice includes a measure of access to basic resources such as labour, housing, education, health and other areas of human development. The experience of the USSR is characterised by the fact that, on the one hand, the universal availability and security of these basic resources (public goods) created the grounds for stimulating human development. On the other hand, the violation of these declared principles in practice (due to the development of bureaucratic privileges and benefits, the shadow economy, etc.) caused serious negative incentives, which became one of the elements in the system of reasons for the departure of “real socialism” from the historical scene. Secondly, the article points out that the Soviet system of income generation based on the principles of labour distribution was a combination of planned-normative and market-capitalist principles designed to create economic “egoistic” incentives. To the extent that this system was implemented, it succeeded in stimulating productivity and labour (but not market) initiative. But the manifestation, and in later stages of the USSR's development – in some cases the predominance, of bureaucratic-voluntarist foundations in the system created rather negative incentives. Relations of alienation in the sphere of appropriation and disposal of public property undermined socialist incentives to work and social innovation. The author concludes that some of the achievements of the Soviet system in the realisation of social justice are possible and effective in meeting the challenge of sustainable development in the 21st century. In particular, practices that were developed in the Soviet system, such as the provision of basic goods that are publicly available and free to users, the use of forms of work organisation based on a combination of competition, solidarity and self-government, etc., remain important.

143-148 563
Abstract

The article is devoted to the main approaches of Soviet economists to the issue of introducing the achievements of scientific and technological progress into production related to the experience of economic development of the USSR. Among the research provisions, general economic planning stands out as a key tool for the balanced dissemination of the elements of scientific and technological revolution in the interests of the entire population. Practice showed the validity of the advantages of socialism noted by researchers in a number of spheres. However, there were also significant imbalances in economic development, which were insufficiently worked out theoretically. The successes were concentrated mainly in the important strategic industries, while the production of consumer goods faced systemic difficulties. Ultimately, these imbalances started growing, and the intensive component of economic growth began declining. This tendency is substantiated by a system of motivations at different management levels, among employees. Public enthusiasm and intangible motives were substantial but limited, while economic incentives were insufficient. Nevertheless, despite the current dominance of an economic system being fundamentally different from the Soviet model, there are prerequisites of the growing relevance of turning to Soviet theories and practices in economic development based on advanced technologies. This is due to a significant degree of similar content of technologies attributed to the fourth industrial revolution, compared with the post-war stage of scientific and technological revolution. The new nature of technologies presupposes greater calculation possibilities in planning, the prospects for widespread automation of production, coupled with the need to form new, non-economic motives of work. Similar problems were widely discussed in the Soviet academic sources.

148-151 672
Abstract

The article analyzes the contradictions in the development of public goods production sphere in the USSR. It is shown that, on the one hand, such spheres as science, education, public health care, culture, etc. in this economic system were developing on the principles of general accessibility, egalitarianism, guarantees of employment. This provision has become one of the foundations for the formation of creative potential among a wide range of citizens, boost of creative activity, high results in the development of human potential, technology, culture. On the other hand, in these areas, as in the economy as a whole, this progress was hampered by numerous deformations of progressive trends (bureaucracy, shadow commercial relations, etc.). Critical use of the experience of the USSR shows that the development of spheres in which prevails creative labor as spaces for the creation and distribution of public goods can give high economic, social and humanitarian results, provided they are organized in the democratic mode.

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ISSN 1609-1442 (Print)
ISSN 2618-8996 (Online)