ACTUAL PROBLEMS OF ECONOMICS
Risk build-up method is the most used for calculating the capitalization rates. With the help of the literature analysis, the origin of this method is considered. The method was based on the relationship between risk and profitability of a stock in exchange trading, proven statistically. Later, when formulating the build-up method, this idea was transferred without any justification to the valuation of enterprises that do not list their securities on stock exchange. In other words, the formulas traditionally used in the application of the build-up method are empirical in nature and not precise.
It is more accurate to write them down by analogy with Irwin Fisher's equation of returns. Based on the principle of dependence, one of the main ones for the valuation procedure, the essence of which is that the value of the valuation subject depends on its economic location, a set of four independent risks is given for use in the build-up method in general case: risk-free rate, country risk premium, branch risk premium, and subject risk adjustment. It is noted that the numerical value of these parameters used in the method fundamentally depends on the monetary unit used in the calculation (the valuation currency). Recommendations are given on finding a risk-free rate for various currencies, on calculating country risk premium, branch risk premium, and subject risk adjustment. The article is intended for academics, lecturers, and practitioners in such areas as corporate finance, business microeconomics, valuation, and investment analysis.
ECONOMICAL POLICY AND ECONOMICAL PRACTICE
The article examines the objectively existing need in modern market conditions to introduce and apply innovative approaches in the internal corporate management of commercial enterprises, including when building an effective risk management system. A brief assessment of the most widespread approach in Russia to the formation of local risk management systems is given. The article, using scientific methods of theoretical research, methods of scientific analysis and interdisciplinary synthesis (economics of law), methods of induction and deduction, generalization of the results obtained using a hypothetical-deductive method, substantiates the need for an effective local risk management system for Russian commercial enterprises. Arguments are given in favor of the use of innovative tools in the formation and filling of risk management systems. The article deals with the problems associated with the introduction of a corporate agreement as an effective tool in the system of minimizing commercial risks arising in the course of the activities of Russian business structures. The article presents the most relevant scientific publications on the topic of research and makes a generalized conclusion about the current state of research in the relevant field. The issue of the place of corporate agreements in local risk management systems is considered. The definitions are given and the main characteristics of risk management and its system, corporate agreement are given. The range of issues regulated by the provisions of the corporate agreement is outlined. The conclusion summarizes the arguments supporting the introduction of innovative tools into existing risk management systems. Arguments are given in favor of using a corporate agreement as an effective and low-budget tool to ensure the growth of the effectiveness of risk management systems in Russian business structures. The conclusion is substantiated that the use of a corporate agreement as an instrument of the risk management system is potentially capable of positively affecting the level of economic efficiency and competitiveness of commercial enterprises. Examples of corporate risks that can be minimized by applying certain provisions of the corporate agreement are given.
During last decades Russia was in the process of forming a market of regional development institutions, the structure of which includes such managing entities as regional development corporations (agencies). The article examines the information openness of Russian regional development corporations (RDC). It gives quantitative assessment and shows the qualitative transformation of this phenomenon in 2016 and 2020. The official websites and portals of these organizations are used as information base. Comparison information openness ratings of the Russian RDC for 2016 and 2020, built by the authors, allowed establishing few important facts and trends’ development. Firstly, the number of RDCs is slowly but surely growing. Secondly, their information openness has slightly increased over the last four years. Thirdly, the difference between the indicators of information openness of the RDC has sharply decreased, what indicates an increase in competition between these structures in the all-Russian information market. Fourthly, the work to improve awareness of RDC activities is spontaneous and does not involve any reporting standards. The experience of Canada and Australia was considered to identify management reserves in the work of Russian RDCs. That allowed to formulate few proposals. First, it is advisable to increase the number of domestic RDCs by 2–3 times. Secondly, a unified standard for RDC corporate reporting and a Federal portal with their contact details are necessary. Thirdly, RDC should not only participate in the implementation of regional projects, but also develop a promising model for the development of the territory, considering its specifics, which is currently absent.
The main problems of sustainable development of business ecosystems are considered. It is proved that promising business ecosystems need to master and use modern, including digital, technologies in managing the level of risk. The purpose of this study is to expand the types of tools that can be used to manage the risk level of failure to achieve sustainable development of business ecosystems. To study the problems of risk management and identify the characteristics of the risk phenomenon in the activities of business ecosystems, the methodology and applied tools of the system economic theory and the operational theory of risk management are used. It is shown that the management of risk of harm to the environment, in the social sphere, and development of anti-risk impacts, reducing the level of risk of not achieving the necessary quality of management, improve the investment attractiveness of economic agents, members of the business ecosystem. The realization research may be of interest to enterprises and organizations that are developing their own strategies for sustainable development within the framework of emerging business ecosystems, or developing their own strategy for choosing and joining some hypothetical business ecosystem.
In the context of the deployment of transient processes and the exacerbation of crisis phenomena in socio-economic systems of various types, the importance of a reasonable setting and correction of development goals increases. For the current situation in the Russian Federation, when the implemented program of constitutional amendments creates the preconditions for the subsequent reform of public authorities and the mechanism of multi-level strategic planning, it is especially important to conduct research in the field of substantiating scientific approaches to the development of mathematical methods for solving the problem of strategic goal-setting. One of the key points in the modernization of the methodological support of strategic planning in the context of the constitutional transformation of the system of public authorities is consideration of the value foundations of activities in the systems of distributed management of socio-economic development, analysis of the problems of formalizing the setting of goals by the participants in the multi-level strategic planning process and substantiation of the structure of the theoretical model of goal-setting. The article considers the general characteristics of the functioning of the system of state strategic planning in the Russian Federation from the point of view of goal achievement. The institutional and conceptual foundations of goal setting are presented. The relationship between the concepts of “goal”, “target indicator” and “target function” are shown. The interrelation of the tasks of goal-setting and programming of the activity of an economic agent is characterized. An approach to formalizing goal-setting based on a theoretical scheme of mutual development planning tasks is proposed. The general structure of the strategic goal-setting model in the organizational mechanism of multi-level long-term planning determined. A possible approach to the algorithmization of the solution of the linear formulation of the goal-setting problem in the multisubject development control space based on the methods of target programming and multicriteria optimization was proposed. The formation of an operator of iterative management of the potentials and development priorities of interacting economic and social agents on the horizon of strategizing substantiated. To introduce a theoretical model of goal-setting into the practice of strategizing in the context of the formation of a digital platform of public administration, it is necessary to develop appropriate algorithmic support, as well as the formation of a regulatory and information base and the definition of an organizational and technological basis. Further improvement of the analytical and methodological tools for supporting the activities of strategic planning participants at the goal-setting stage is associated with the description and analysis of the corresponding applied tasks of goal setting at various levels and areas of socio-economic development planning.
PHILOSOPHY OF ECONOMICS
To study long-term socio-economic processes and the factors that determine them, two methods, two approaches are usually used at the present time: the theory of the cyclic change of world economic structures (WES) and the theory of the evolution of civilizations. In the theory of civilizations, attention is focused mainly on the factors that have the most long – term impact on economic and social processes, namely, on value-sense factors and the principles of the structure of society. The current spiritual, ideological, and geopolitical opposition – the confrontation between the American-style approach to globalization and the multipolar world (MPW) – can be seen as the most important engine and threat to historical development. The purpose of the article is to describe this confrontation in the language of the theory of civilizations. The article describes the civilizational turning point, the transformation of Christian Western Europe into the civilization of the capitalist West. The main task of this transformation was to eliminate all the traditional highest senses and ethical restrictions for the domination of the capital accumulation attitude and the ideology of individualistic liberalism. The article presents some features of the MPW that allow us to consider it (along with the concept of transition to a new, integral WES) as an emerging new civilization, an alternative to the civilization of the West. The leaders of the development of the new civilization are Russia and China. In these civilizations, the most important sense center is the state. In Russia, the focus on perfecting and heightening the status of the state can largely compensate for the decline of spiritual and ideological factors. This article is a continuation of the articles (Volkonsky, 2018; Volkonsky, Gavrilets, Kudrov, 2020).
INFORMATIONAL TECHNOLOGIES IN ECONOMICS
Russian economy was influenced by western sanctions in many spheres. Russian credit market was significantly impacted as well. The presented work suggests that except for the strict influence in form of financial restrictions and assets freezing, sanctions also had indirect impact. Emotional presentation of Russian sanctions in abroad media can be claimed as one of the indirect factors, which form banking management expectations of economic situation and influences people to have loans and place money into deposits. The aim of research is to estimate the influence of news about Russian sanctions tonality in foreign media on the level of credit and deposit interest rates in Russian commercial banks. To achieve this goal, the following hypotheses were claimed: there is a connection between the way in which sanctions against Russia are presented in foreign media and the level of interest rates; there is a difference in the impact of positive and negative news texts on the expectations, determining changes in interest rates. «Bag of words» technique and a special dictionary, which helps to identify the emotional tonality of the text, were used to achieve the declared aim. Advanced modeling of interest rates was carried out using the vector autoregression (VAR) model, supplemented by the construction of the impulse response function and the calculation of the rate dispersion decomposition. As a result, a hypothesis about the influence of news tonality on commercial bank interest rates’ was approved.
The paper discusses an approach to assessing the impact of the coronavirus epidemic in Russia on economic efficiency and, as a result, on the monetary income of the country's population. The approach used is based on the application of the methodology of mathematical modeling. Based on the analysis of statistical information, it is shown that there is a correlation between the dynamics of the average per capita income of the population and GDP. To assess the dynamics of GDP, a dynamic model of the impact of restrictive measures aimed at curbing the spread of the coronavirus epidemic on macroeconomic efficiency is constructed. The main hypothesis of the model is that the main factor affecting the efficiency of the economy is the productivity of workers who create GDP. In the constructed model, all employees are divided into three groups. The first group – workers whose activities were not affected by the coronavirus; the second group-workers whose productivity decreased due to the coronavirus; the third group-workers whose productivity fully or partially recovered after the easing of restrictive measures. As a result, the dynamics of GDP is determined by a system of three ordinary differential equations with parameters depended on the epidemiological situation. To assess the indicators that characterize the spread of infection and affect the parameters of the macroeconomic efficiency model, a discrete modification of the classical SIR-model of the epidemic with piecewise constant parameters is constructed. This model allowed us to estimate the dynamics of the average for the four day values of the basic reproductive numbers and other indicators of spread of infection through the use of official statistical information in the base period, and to perform scenario calculations for the development of the epidemic in Moscow and beyond until July 2021 Developed modification of the SIR model allows for its clarification with regard to the influence of vaccination on the dynamics of epidemiological process.
ECONOMIC DISCUSSION
The desire to avoid the consequences of extreme social and economic situations under capitalism and globalization, including financial relations, encourages the state authorities to use various measures of protection from threats. This has been reflected in the creation of many relevant doctrinal and conceptual documents. The public demand has stimulated the development of risk management theory and security studies. The real science and practice of management to achieve goals in this environment is pragmatically replaced by regulation to prevent border-critical situations. However, no system of scientific knowledge has been obtained in applied scientific research on the security of socio-economic systems, explaining some set of special phenomena and reducing the open natural connections in the field of security, if there were any, to a single unifying principle. The search for such a beginning leads to the task of management. It was not possible to find objective grounds for determination of safety space boundaries (threshold values) of social and economic systems. Applied research methods are not specific to security and risk management issues and are used in management theory. Either maintenance of safety appears a private subtask in a context of the decision of a boundary problem of management of development of system, or at expanded interpretation of safety within the limits of the vital approach, as a desirable condition, actually merges with management problem for achieving the target condition. Artificial separation of the security task from the management task generates an imaginary contradiction between security and development, in the practical aspect leads to substitution of strategic management by security, creation of parallel institutions, and dispersion of resources. It is advisable in the scientific and practical spheres of management of socio-economic systems to concentrate efforts on solving the problems of strategic management of the system development in order to achieve a favorable (desired) future. Security and risk management tasks should be considered as local subtasks of ensuring the integrity of the system under specific impacts.
The adoption in 2014 of the Federal law No. 172 “On strategic planning…” not only fully returned the concept of “planning” to the legal and institutional “field” of the system of state and municipal administration, but also outlined the need to establish long-term priorities and goals for such planning. It is also important that the law directly linked the goal setting of socio-economic strategy-making with ensuring the requirements of national and economic security of the country. Strategies and other security documents were developed before the adoption of Federal law No. 172. But only this legislative act has established security strategies as an integral element of strategic planning practices and confirmed their role as one of the key sources of goal setting for strategic planning documents. However, it appeared not possible to implement such setting in real management practice in complete and consistent way. Although formally Federal law No. 172 is saturated with a variety of references to security requirements, in reality it’s almost impossible to determine what national and economic security requirements are meant in each particular case and to what extent they are practically implemented in a particular strategic planning document. There is a situation, in which references to national security requirements have become an excessive and even burdensome attribute of strategic planning practice. The reasons for such a situation, however, cannot be attributed only to the miscalculations of Federal law No. 172 and current law enforcement practice. Rather we should talk about the obsolescence of Federal law No. 390 “On security” and, of course, the problematic content of the two current federal documents on security. These documents, although they are known as “strategies”, can hardly be considered as such type documents and even more, they can hardly be actually accepted as a source of goal setting for other strategic planning documents. Meanwhile, security components are not an encumbrance and not an alternative to the main documents of strategic planning. The article proves that it’s important to define more concrete security components and the mechanisms of their realization in such a way so that their role should be not less and not more than it’s really necessary for systematic goal setting in the framework of strategic planning. The purpose of this article is to identify the conditions under which security strategies would overcome their current formal status and could be actively integrated into the practice of strategic planning as one of the main sources of goal setting.
SCIENCE LIFE CHRONICLE
The article is devoted to the analysis of the content and results of the First International Lvov Forum, dedicated to the 90th anniversary of the birth of Academician D. S. Lvov (1930–2007). The forum was held on October 20–21, 2020 at the State University of Management with the support of the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (RFBR), project No. 20-010-22058. Major Russian and foreign scientists, academicians and corresponding members of the Russian Academy of Sciences, leading Russian universities, universities of the Czech Republic, France, Bulgaria and other countries took part in the First Lvov Forum. The Forum discussed fundamental problems of modern Russian and world economic science, including: the problem of the crisis of the paradigm of economic theory; the problem of the relationship between philosophical and economic knowledge; the need to form a new paradigm of economic science; the problem of interaction between society, state and business at the micro, meso and macro levels in the face of modern challenges; place and role of Russia in the world socio-economic system; development strategy of the Russian socio-economic system in the context of the new paradigm of economic science in the context of modern challenges. The discussion of the above fundamental problems was on the basis of a synthesis of the principle of dichotomy and a systematic approach. The First Lvov Forum took a significant place among such major Russian scientific events as the Gaidar Economic Forum, the Krasnoyarsk Economic Forum, the Moscow Economic Forum, etc. due to the relevance of the problems considered at the Forum, the novelty of the methods proposed for their solution. The ideas of Russian and foreign scientists presented at the Forum can be used for the further development of modern economic theory, as well as for the development of programs for the development of the Russian economy at the micro, meso and macro levels.
JUBILEES
THE MEMORY OF OUR COLLEAGUES
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