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Economics of Contemporary Russia

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No 4 (2020)
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ACTUAL PROBLEMS OF ECONOMICS

7-24 1167
Abstract

The article reveals the understanding of property in institutionalism and in classical political economy with an emphasis on the Marxist direction of the latter. It is shown that in the works of modern authors belonging to the Post-Soviet School of Critical Marxism – one of the main directions of modern theory of classical political economy in Russia – the specific, concrete historical content of property relations is firstly investigated. This content in the framework of this direction, inheriting the tradition of the “Tsagolovskaya” school of political economy, is connected through the system of production relations of a particular society. It is shown that both private and public forms of property have different socio-economic contents in historically different socio-economic systems – pre-bourgeois, bourgeois, post-capitalist. The author proposes political and economic systematization of patterns of property that are characteristic of the modern stage of economic development, which in the article is defined as late capitalism. These forms include not only different types of private and public property, but also transitional forms that contradictory combine private-capitalist and associated forms of appropriation. It is specially emphasized that public property is not reducible to state property and includes a special type of relationship – “ownership by everybody of everything”, which is characteristic of the sphere of co-creation. It is shown that in certain types of economy, state ownership can hide relations not only of public, but also of private-capitalist appropriation, as well as non-economic coercion. The contradictions of the transformation of property relations under the conditions of late capitalism and the most relevant practical problems associated with this are revealed.
The article includes a polemic dialogue of the author with representatives of the institutional direction and the works of George B. Kleiner.

24-38 954
Abstract
One of the key factors that determine the success of the company and ensure its ongoing development, adaptation to the requirements of the digital economy, is the human capital (HC) of the enterprise. In this regard, the purpose of the study is designated as identifying ways to support the integral and sustainable growth of a company based on the development of its human capital. Since an enterprise is an open socio-economic system, the methodological basis of the work is the systems economic theory, which made it possible to present the company's activities as the interaction of object, environmental, process and project systems. Based on this concept and taking into account the objectives traditionally pursued by the company, four basic functional complexes have been identified that ensure the stability and reproductive capabilities of the enterprise, the challenges that need to be overcome within such capabilities were identified, the requirements for the knowledge, skills and abilities of personnel were established. Comparison of the human resources of the enterprise and the features of the corporate tasks solved with their help made it possible to group the elements of the company's HC in a new way – depending on the impact on the noted basic subsystems that determine the integrity of the company. This systematization demonstrated the interconnection of individual elements of the enterprise's HC and the performance of the corresponding complexes. Thus, the probable personnel reasons for the lag in certain areas of the company's activity and the possibilities of their reorganization by targeted impact on the required elements of the HC were identified. Since the implementation of the proposed approach requires the determination of the status of the corporate HC, and the reliability of such a procedure traditionally raises criticism due to the objective difficulties of measurement, the article proposes a methodology to streamline the process of assessing the state of the parameters under study. The methodology is based on the ranking of HC indicators depending on the accuracy of displaying the parameters of the object. The proposed approach made it possible to determine the tools for monitoring the selected categories of human capital, ways to step them up and remedy the situation.
39-51 647
Abstract
At the present stage of social and economic development of our country, the task of developing the institute of strategic planning is extremely urgent. The most important component of this institute is the system of strategic management at the regional level. The formation of regional development centers is an important factor in the sustainable development of regions and problems. The aim of this study is the principles and methods of implementation into the management system of procedures for the development and implementation of the strategy for the formation of regional development centers. The subject of the study are the principles and prerequisites for the development of a strategy for their formation. The basic provisions of general system theory are used as a methodological basis. The results of the study can be used in the development of regional development strategies and targeted programs.
51-62 694
Abstract
Autoregressive models AR(p) and their numerous modifications are actively used for short-term forecasting of economic processes. At the same time, it is not always possible to achieve the necessary forecast accuracy; therefore, scientists engaged in economic forecasting continue to develop new methods and approaches in order to use them to improve the accuracy of their forecasts. One of the promising approaches in this direction is associated with the use of elements of the theory of functions of a complex variable in modeling the economy (complex-valued economy). The article shows how, using complex-valued autoregressive models, to increase the accuracy of short-term economic forecasting. Here, the properties and the possibility of practical application in short-term economic forecasting of two models are considered: the complex-valued autoregression model, the real part of which is the predicted indicator, and the imaginary part is the time at which this indicator was observed (model CTAR(p)) and the model, the real part of which is the predicted indicator, and the imaginary part is the current forecast error CARE(p). It is shown that the classical model of autoregression of real variables AR(p) is a special case of each of these two models. The main focus of the article is on studying the properties of the ReCARE(p) model. It is theoretically substantiated that this model predicts short-term economic dynamics more accurately than the AR(p) model. And it is shown on practical examples. Therefore, in cases, where autoregressive models are appropriate, it is recommended to use the new ReCARE(p) model, as it is more accurate. It is shown that, on the platform of this basic model, it is possible to develop new short-term forecasting models similar to the ARMA(p, q) and ARIMA(p, q) models, from which one should expect increased accuracy of short-term economic models.
62-75 620
Abstract
When calculating the company's business plan, in many cases there is a problem of lack of resources to fully meet the demand for the company's products. In article (Danilin, 2019) the system of models of coordination of decisions between the leading divisions of the company was offered: production department, sales department, department of, financial department. However, the production department was presented in this article only by one model, and technological services were absent. In this article more detailed system of models for production department when calculating the production program is offered, and agreeing on the decision with model of technological service. The calculation of the production program (the company's capacity) and its growth is possible due to several areas: a) the development by the technology departments of short-term projects aimed at the implementation of resource consumption standards; b) the development by technology departments of additional production methods for manufacturing products or services, along with the main; c) additional acquisition of resources through investment; d) outsourcing of domestic semi-finished products. There were special models for each area that would reduce the level of increase in the company's ability to meet the demand for its production. The purpose of the article was to show an opportunity to create a model system out of them, allowing them to maximize the capacity of the production company within the framework of the existing investment opportunities. The scientific novelty is to develop the meta-historical basis for the sequence of implementation of individual models and to harmonize them with each other to solve the problem. The example shows that the use of these directions in a certain sequence allows to increase the power of the company and as close as possible to 100% of the satisfaction of demand.

ECONOMICAL POLICY AND ECONOMICAL PRACTICE

76-83 670
Abstract
The article presents an empirical analysis of the impact of the political and economic consequences of financial crises on the development of entrepreneurship in the regions of Russia. Entrepreneurship development contributes to economic growth and can play an important role in stimulating long-term sustainable development, as well as reducing unemployment by creating jobs. The data sample of the study covers the period from 2006 to 2016. Two groups of indicators are considered: institutional and economic. The first group includes indicators of the effectiveness of the judicial system and the level of criminality. The second group includes indicators characterizing the degree of integration of the Russian companies into the global economy. In addition, the indicators of the quality of social infrastructure, the degree of intercompany competition, market density and some others are taken into account. Model assessment is based on the OLS method. This paper shows that the effectiveness of the judicial system in resolving disputes related to non-compliance with contracts and non-payment of debts does not affect the business development in Russia. However, one of the main problems faced by Russian business owners is the high level of corruption. Moreover, the weak diversification of the Russian economy is a key factor in the negative impact of external economic shocks. We found a significant role of factors like the size of the internal regional market and the share of residents connected to the Internet. The latter factor shows that at present information technologies play an important role in modern Russian business, creating additional opportunities for expanding existing businesses as well as creating new ones. We came to the conclusion that the problem of corruption is growing, as a significant barrier to companies entering the market.
83-99 801
Abstract
The article provides system analysis of small business. The paper presents quantitative indicators of the development of the subjects of Russian small business contained in various statistical databases (Rosstat, Federal Tax Service), reveals the incompatibility of the data, which complicates the analysis of the considered sector of the national economy. It is concluded that the scale of development of small business is insufficient, which does not allow for the full implementation of its inherent functions. The necessity of supplementing the quantitative approach with a qualitative analysis of small business as a mesoscale system has been substantiated. The concept of heterogeneity of its structure is introduced, characterized by the presence of a triad of categories (“kids”, “genetic dwarfs”, “transformers”) and a triad of subcategories (“travelers”, “reorganizers”, “imago”) that determine the composition of “transformers”. Their system functions have been studied and it was concluded that the relationship between them, on one hand, determines the systemic stability of small business, and on the other hand, creates a “portrait” of small business in a particular state. Based on the proposed methodological principles, the specificity of the Russian small business model has been formulated, namely that the SME sector is currently not able to be the basis of a market economy, and the model itself is structurally unbalanced. Its distinguishing features include a low share of innovative oriented enterprises comprising “kids” and “dwarfs”, a significant number of small firms working in economic symbiosis with large enterprises, a relatively short life cycle of all categories of small businesses, a high share of imago and retiring due to the loss-making of small enterprises etc. The specifics of the implementation of micro-level development strategies of various categories of small enterprises is the use of credit resources of banks, increasing the stability of their functioning (including increasing their life cycle) have been considered. The necessity of a differentiated approach to the implementation of the mesoscale strategy of state support of small businesses has been substantiated. The conclusion has drawn on the importance of transforming the existing infrastructure to support Russian small business, and in particular – the importance of the role of state aid in times of crisis. Supporting measures for small enterprises in the context of the corona-virus pandemic in Russia and in foreign countries have been considered.
99-117 1037
Abstract
Stress testing is a broad research area, at the interference of many disciplines (finance, banking, econometrics, macroeconomics, microeconomics, mathematical analysis etc.), and is of interest to both theoretical scientists and practitioners. The usefulness of this approach became evident after the financial crisis of 2007–2009, which prompted many researchers to develop and constantly improve stress-testing methodologies, using which it is possible to accurately forecast the behavior of banks and the financial sector in crisis periods. It allows banks to assess the scale of losses and timely take the necessary measures to strengthen the financial condition. Today, economic science has the biggest arsenal of stress testing methods that allow us to assess potential losses in crisis periods that correspond to extreme but plausible events. The stress testing methodologies cover all-important types of risks (credit, interest rate risk, liquidity risk etc.), as well as specific risks. The presence of a huge number of stress testing methods guarantees its versatility and depth, which could be explained by the attempt using this methods to create a behavior model of banks, which are quite complex in structure and functionality. The purpose of this study is to provide a concise, but at the same time comprehensive classification of stress testing methods, as well as a review of the current approaches to stress testing or to solving its various aspects (for example, developing stress scenarios) presented by scientists, international organizations, central banks and other interested parties. This paper is an introduction to the vast field of analytics – stress testing, and is oriented to banking and financial analysts, macroeconomists who want either to familiarize themselves with stress testing as a tool for assessing banking risks, or to systematize all the accumulated knowledge in this area in order to better understand economic processes.
118-131 653
Abstract
The work is devoted to the search for answers to the question: “Are there any differences in the public procurement of customers who provide services of different quality?”. The article identifies the stages of the hospital procurement process in the contract system and highlights the main customer strategies used in the auction. The results of an independent quality assessment are examined and comparative hospital characteristics with low and high quality rating are conducted. The hospital needs according to the types of purchases and their annual volumes of contracts are analyzed. The advantages of competitive procedures are determined and the key factors affecting the level of competition with possible risks of unreliable execution of contracts are identified. The empirical study is based on the database which includes 5390 contracts of 2 hospitals in Moscow for years of 2011–2017. Using the methods of econometric analysis, in particular, the method of least squares and the difference in the average, the hypothesis is tested the high competition has a positive effect on the quality of medical services. The constructed regression models show that the customer providing high quality services has low competition and small rebates at the auction. At the same time there are more contract terms, delays in the supply of goods and services as compared with the customer providing low quality services. Thus it was found that the underestimation of competition at the auction indicates the desire of the hospital to guarantee a higher quality of medical services to patients while as aggressive bids of participants lead to the supply of poor purchases. The results of the study may be useful for the competent authorities in the development of legal acts for the participants of the contract system in the field of health procurement.

PHILOSOPHY OF ECONOMICS

132-146 1054
Abstract

The article is based on the report “The Transit of Civilizations: Methodological and Prognostic Aspects of Civilizational Competition”. It is devoted to the analysis of methodological and prognostic aspects of diachronic civilizational competition in the process of the current transformation of Modernity into the new historical state, defined as Postmodernity. Methodological and prognostic aspects of this historical transit are analyzed. The general aim of the study is to observe effective strategies for behavior while in situations of complexity, volatility, uncertainty and ambiguity. Different methods of orientation, action and management in post-war period are described and the possibility of their further transformation up to the next epistemological revolution is discussed. There is also an attempt to present certain analytical tools. Civilization is a dynamic concept, a social analogue of evolution. The globalization of modernity is accompanied by post-modern individuation, the antipode of industrial culture and mass society. The process of splitting of political structures, genesis of technical and anthropological complexity, creation of cloud structures – all this distorts the modern World Order. System approach is usually used to study complexities, while view of the future is based on a combination of transdisciplinary analysis, global context and long-term perspective. New methodological approach is produced for replacing the globality with fractality, long-term prognostics with non-linear dynamics, and transdisciplinary generalizations with uniqueness. The article also analyzes the latest generation of methodologies that possibly will allow us to make decisions and effectively act in this complex environment full of wicked situations and processes as well as non-classical approaches, such as the mode of action based on the analysis of deep codes of evolution, the art of non-classical operative, synergetic behavior, phenomen of serendipity etc. Research of the innovative methodological and predictive tools is an imperative for sustainable development, taking into account the upcoming turbulence of the social environment.

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ISSN 1609-1442 (Print)
ISSN 2618-8996 (Online)