ACTUAL PROBLEMS OF ECONOMICS
The history of the information technology (IT) development at CEMI RAS and the rethinking of the IT role and associated expectations that has occurred over 60 years in this organization can be an illustration of the evolution of views in the scientific community regarding the socio-economic potential of IT. Over the years of its research work, CEMI RAS worked out the most effective way to use almost all major modifications of computers in scientific research, and also carried out the work related to the development of information and communication technologies, including the Internet. Gradually, views on the IT role as a tool for scientific research evolved into an understanding of the complex impact of IT on socio-economic processes, which has the form of widespread digitalization of socio-economic activities. Under these conditions, one of the key IT-related areas of research and development is the creation of a concept for digitalization of coordination mechanisms, the improvement of which affects the entire socio-economic system. The proposed study briefly presents the main milestones in the use and development of IT over the 60 years of CEMI existence and substantiates a qualitatively new task of using and developing IT to improve methods for coordinating scientific research. The rationale for this task is presented using the example of research activities, but the overall long-term goal of these studies is to develop the concept of digital infrastructure and corresponding institutional structures that will ensure better coordination and act as catalyst for the country's development in all major areas of economic
activity.
In article approaches to justification of the mechanism of optimum development of regional spatial-industry structure in the conditions of transition to digital economy are generalized theoretical-methodological. In the conditions of the next multidimensional crisis of a world economic system caused by competitive wars and local wars with use of lethal weapon the frailty of the existing economic theories at their checking is shown by order and chaos. It indicates the need of application of the basic theory for economy for which the existing economic theories are the first and second derivatives with the specific set of the principles of development. As such basic theory the chaotic theory of inflation of economic space (CTIES) as an analog of the chaotic theory of inflation of the Universe which is the basic theory in a modern general scientific picture of the world can serve in economy. The author offers based on CTIES use of the principles of sustainable development as the transitional stage to a noonomy, at the same time needs the solution of problems of balancing of developments on the chosen parameters by means of application of a triad of matrixes paradigmatic, management and matrixes of technological effectiveness within trinities «society – economy – ecology», «organization – motivation – informatization» and «labor instrument – objects of the labor – work» respectively. The most acceptable methodology for this purpose is the methodology based on the geometrical theory of optimal management. Such approach assumes work with Big Data, Data Science, Data mining, Machine learning, etc. characterizing transition to digital economy and, respectively, to researches on the basis of the Fourth paradigm of science (Science 4.0, E-science).
Interest in the circular economy (CE) is growing in scientific circles, at the state level, as well as among businesses. At the same time, the question of what the circular world will be like remains insufficiently studied and even formulated. Scientific research is focused on the analysis of circular strategies (R-strategies) in the context of sustainable development, exploring the benefits of CE and the barriers to achieving it. At the same time, R-strategies without reference to the images of the future can interfere with the achievement of the goals set and the solution of a number of environmental problems. The article presents images of a circular future and gives a definition of CE, without which a different understanding of the concept is inevitable, leading to the introduction of different indicators for measuring progress in achieving circular goals. Main findings: CE is an evolving concept, which explains the lack of a single definition. It should reflect the images of the future, which will create the basis for the development of a unified system of indicators to measure the degree of achievement of goals and compare them at the international level. Images of the future must be interpreted as a process of improvement, because they can be transformed. The study used general scientific methods of system analysis, abstraction, synthesis, a review of Russian and foreign scientific literature, data from the official websites of the government of the Russian Federation was carried out to determine the CE, its determinants in order to consolidate research on this topic. Such a review is a reproducible, scientific and transparent method of identifying a research area. For this, we used the data presented in the bibliographic databases eLibrary.ru, Google Scholar, ScienceDirect. The results will find a response in the scientific, political, business circles for a better understanding of the CE, developing of strategies for the transition to it, forming of images of the future; serving as a basis for developing indicators and measuring the progress of such actions.
The purpose of this study is to analyze the similarities and differences in the structure of N. D. Kondratiev long waves in the economies of the three largest European countries: Germany, France and Great Britain. It is assumed that the main trend in the dynamics of the GDP of these countries – is the trend associated precisely with changes in technology, and not with the influence of ones or others exogenous factors – can be represented in the form of a superposition of long Kondratiev waves represented by a periodic function, the values of which at a given time determines the amount of value added produced over the previous time interval. Each wave is characterized by four parameters: time, length of its period, magnitude of the initial amplitude and rate of amplitude decrease. In addition, such characteristics of long waves as the duration of their latency period, the time of their entry into leading positions and duration of their leadership relative to the previous and subsequent technological waves are calculated. Five long Kondratiev waves are considered, the parameters of which are estimated in such a way as to obtain the best description of the dynamics of the GDP of a given country in terms of the deviation of the model from this dynamics. As an estimate of GDP, its values measured in international dollars (Geary–Khamis dollars) for the period from 1790 to 2020 are considered. The calculations showed that in some parameters there is a similarity in the structure of technological waves in these countries, while in others there are differences in the dynamics of their occurrence and development. In the final part of the article, the characteristics of long waves for three European countries are compared with the characteristics of long waves in the US economy over the same time period obtained in previous studies. It is also shown that the leadership durations of long waves obtained in these calculations coincide with the theoretical estimates of the periods of long waves by N. D. Kondratiev.
The emergence of qualitatively new phenomena of social and economic life, economic theory receives impulses of its renewal and is being modernized. Among such phenomena are the new economic reality, its scale, complexity, as well as the saturation of acute contradictions predetermine the difficulties of its theoretical interpretation and significant differences in the interpretations of its content. At the same time, these peculiarities of the new economic reality make necessary to attract to its theoretical study the cognitive possibilities of the theory of modes of production. Drawing on such opportunities, the authors come to the conclusion that the new economic reality represents a special phase in the progressive movement of the capitalist mode of production. The boundary of such a phase is set by the transition of the threshold of measures in the accumulation of problems that are not provided with adequate solutions, generated by long and deep technological shifts, as well as related socio-economic transformations. A new economic reality arises in the process of transformation of the system of the capitalist mode of production, within which the prerequisites of the associated mode of production are intensively created and accumulated. The formation of a special theory of a new economic reality capable of interpreting a variety of factors characteristic of various aspects of the corresponding phenomenon makes possible to build a holistic picture of a special phase of the development of the capitalist mode of production system, as well as to develop applied tools that are in demand in the process of regulating the most important processes of this phase. The research conducted by the authors is focused on: defining a special subject area of the specified theory in the general space of the evolution of economic theory; developing a method of its research, providing the needs of its formation and development. The article contains practical recommendations for realizing the cognitive potential of the theory of new economic reality. The main results of the theoretical study carried out belong to one of the new directions in the development of economic theory, which predetermines the debatable nature of the conceptual provisions, final conclusions and practical recommendations received by the authors. In the process of research, the possibilities of the dialectical method, modern versions of the systemic and evolutionary approaches, as well as the resources of a number of theories were realized: the mode of production; capital; socio-economic transformations; personification of economic relations; threshold measures in the development of the phenomenon.
ECONOMICAL POLICY AND ECONOMICAL PRACTICE
The actuality of developing theoretical and methodological approaches to the formation of a risk-based model of enterprise personnel management is due to the growing macroeconomic instability and turbulence in the current crisis. The reasons for this global economic crisis are the gradual depletion of resources, difficulties in the transition to a new technological structure and compliance with its requirements, unfair competition that has developed over the past decades in the global markets, and growing opposition of the «collective West» to other centers of the world development. The aim of the study is to determine the theoretical and methodological aspects of the formation of a risk-based model of enterprise personnel management in the new reality based on comparative analysis and assessment of existing opportunities for optimizing economic activities, as well as assessing the key factors that determine the quality of modern personnel management. The objectives of the study are: analysis of the morphology of personnel risks and methods for their classification; determination and evaluation of qualitative features of a risk-based model of enterprise personnel management; development of a general algorithm for the formation of this model, taking into account the requirements of the internal and external environment of the enterprise. The study used a dialectical approach, methods of modeling (reconstruction, decomposition) and forecasting (extrapolation), structural-functional and program-targeted analysis. An algorithm for the formation of a risk-based model of enterprise personnel management is proposed, which is presented as a system of variable behavior management of business entities (enterprise personnel) in the context of building their multi-vector development strategy. The morphology of personnel risks is disclosed; the main principles and methods of work with personnel risks at different stages of their genesis are identified and characterized. The most promising organizational and economic tools for practical use of risk-based model of enterprise personnel management are identified. As a dominant condition for functioning of this model, the need to develop broad self-government within the framework of the operational and economic activities of specific divisions of enterprises is argued. The results of the study can be used in the personnel policy of enterprises as part of their operational and strategic reengineering.
This article presents the problems of designing the strategies of western companies that continue to own Russian assets, and identifies the main dilemmas of the strategic choice facing these companies: 1) to leave Russia or stay in Russia; 2) to leave as quickly as possible or profitable as possible; 4) if a decision is made to expand the business, then – do it with reduction of the share of innovation expenses in the gross profit (revenues) of the Russian division or with an increase of the share of innovation expenses in the gross profit (revenue). The article presents the difficulties of choosing between these options. The main difficulties related to the fact that criteria of decisions are in different domains (political and economic ones) and standard quantitative methods of analysis in many cases turn out to be unacceptable, since there is no single metric for comparing the consequences of decisions. In addition, the interests of decision-making actors are extremely heterogeneous, and the speed of the situation’s change exceeds the speed of decision-making procedures usual for international corporations. The article presents the main types of behavioral models of companies in high uncertainty, multidirectional pressure from various actors of the strategic process and the rapidly changing environment. The trends in the analysis of the behavior of companies under uncertainty that were developed in the literature are mainly associated with economic discourses. Situations of massive sanctions by western countries against Russia introduced political factors into the field of management studies. At the same time, the behavioral aspects of decision-making remain out of sight of most authors. We propose to use Kahneman's and Tversky's «prospect theory» approaches to analyze the situation, which helps to find an explanation for the observed phenomena and put forward hypotheses regarding the future behavior of western companies that are going to continue Russian assets.
The work deals to the construction of the labor demand function in modern Russia. This function is two-factor, with real wages and gross domestic product acting as its factors. The function in question is based on a modified labor demand function, which is a regression equation linking the labor intensity of production with the average real wage. Labor intensity in this case is interpreted as the amount of demand for labor on the part of an average Russian employer in the production of final products worth, for example, 1 million rubles per year. The product of the theoretical value of the modified demand function in a certain year by the value of GDP gives the theoretical number of employed, interpreted as the value of the demand for labor. The article presents the results based on the dynamic series of official Russian statistical information for 2001–2020 calculations that allowed us to determine the type and parameters of the modified labor demand function. The characteristic features of this function are decreasing with deceleration and relatively high elasticity. The relationship between labor intensity and wages can be described as very close. As the calculations have shown, the two-factor demand function also adequately reflects the situation on the Russian labor market.
High uncertainty is a universal characteristic of modern economic reality. Therefore, the behavior of oil and gas companies requires special prudence in the disposal of assets, interaction with the environment of their localization, implementation of production and project activities. Accordingly, the basis for the choice of decisions and actions of the managerial level today should be an adequate scientific and methodological basis, based on the system properties of the oil and gas company and allowing to measure the stability of subsystems and their contribution to the overall ability of the industrial enterprise to work effectively in turbulent conditions and to withstand the enormous pressure of rare and hard-to-predict events. The purpose of this study is to develop and validate a methodology for assessing the sustainability of an oil and gas company, which (unlike traditional ones) is based on the systemic economic theory and considers sustainability as a result of the interaction of subsystems of object, environment, process and project types, their potentials and their combined contribution to the overall sustainability of the enterprise. The methodology is based on the systemic economic theory as a scientific basis for ensuring the viability of oil and gas companies in conditions of high uncertainty. The order of counting the generalized criteria of stability of subsystems of an oil and gas company is based on the consistent use of the method of hierarchy analysis by T. Saaty and multidimensional comparative analysis. The integral indicator – the index of oil and gas company sustainability – is calculated on the basis of the index method using geometric average by U. Jevons, interpreted with an interval method. Approbation of the methodology for assessing the sustainability of oil and gas companies was carried out on the basis of the data on oil and gas companies operating in foreign markets. The results of calculations showed different levels of stability of individual subsystems of oil and gas companies. In particular, the project-type subsystem, the fragility of which is caused by the resource-raw material model of business conduct, requires special attention from the management of Russian companies; foreign companies – the subsystem of the environmental type, the viability of which is determined by the potential of oil and gas assets. Recommendations for the formation of a model of behavior of an oil and gas company taking into account the level of its sustainability are suggested.
WORLD ECONOMICS
The problem of measuring the efficiency of social production is inseparable from the problem of measuring labor productivity. The efficiency of the production use of material resources, expressed as the ratio of the useful result of labor directly to its corresponding costs, reflected in the physical volume of GDP of the countries of the world, is presented in the work as labor productivity. The author selected 12 different countries. The necessary statistical indicators was recalculated from material resources to labor. Using factorial and correlation-regression analysis, the problem of quantitative assessment (in weight terms) and its interpretation as a measure of labor productivity impact on the efficiency of the economies of a number of countries in 2011–2020 is solved. The results of the study confirmed the hypotheses, providing increase in the role of labor productivity in achieving the efficiency of using the production resources in national economic systems. It was empirically proven that national economic systems that differ not in the maximum amount of resources, but in the most balanced combination of different types of resources involved, have a relatively greater efficiency. The place of Russia as an economy characterized by the optimal value of the effect of social production equal to one is noted, which contributes to the relatively successful development of its economic system, subject to active structural restructuring of the economy in favor of sectors that increase labor productivity.
INFORMATIONAL TECHNOLOGIES IN ECONOMICS
Prospects for the development of the domestic economy are determined by the dynamics and pace of industrial changes in the sectors of the industrial sector, the scale and speed of transformation of the qualitative and quantitative characteristics of key industrial resources. This presupposes the implementation of such industrial policy mechanisms that will contribute to solving the problems of accelerated build-up of one's own technological and production potential. The article considers the cluster format of cooperation as one of the mechanisms for implementing industrial changes at the present stage of economic development. An assessment of the current dynamics of cluster interaction between economic entities in domestic practice indicates that the highest level of cooperation, both in the development of product and process innovations, is characteristic of the extractive sector of industry, while in the manufacturing industry, the level of cooperation is higher, the lower the technological level of production in a branch. On the one hand, such trends determine the need for a substantive study of cluster cooperation in the domestic industry, and on the other hand, they update the formation of databases that characterize the most important aspects of the functioning of organizations implementing cluster initiatives. In this article, the authors propose an approach to assessing cluster cooperation of economic entities in the industrial sector, which provides an assessment of the effect of the inclusion of enterprises in the industrial sector of the economy into a cluster association, as well as taking into account such a parameter of cluster interaction as connectedness. The authors formulate a conclusion about the presence of a high degree of relationship between the goals of industrial development and the type of cluster cooperation of enterprises in the industrial sector of the economy.
PHILOSOPHY OF ECONOMICS
The purpose of the article is to identify the conceptual features of human economic models that determine the uniqueness of the construction of alternative approaches, as well as the possibility of transition to a more realistic model. The methodology of the research is determined by the fact that the economy as a complex system has a special type of properties of elements and their relationships associated with its intersubjective and dualistic nature. The article shows that modern approaches that generate fragmented theoretical descriptions have developed on the basis of reliance on different versions of the standard (basic) model of behavior of economic entities that arose during the marginalist revolution. In this model, economic motives are interpreted (explicitly or implicitly) based on utilitarian ethics, which creates the need to consider the behavior and interaction of subjects in the context of the exogenous influence of non-economic factors. The construction of unorthodox theories is based on the socio-cultural model of man proposed by the historical school, and provides for the study of three levels of economic reality. At the deep level, based on the consideration of value-normative representations and interactions of actors, the specifics of the formation of the institutional system of the economy are substantiated; at the middle level, with the help of institutional and instrumental analysis, the behavior of different groups of its subjects is described, taking into account their positions; based on this, the processes occurring at the surface level are explained. Mainstream theories, relying on the institutional model of a person, use institutional and instrumental analysis to describe the average and superficial levels of reality, which is accompanied by borrowing the ideas of the classical and German schools, as well as unorthodox institutionalism. The paper proposes to abandon simplified interpretations of the classical theory and, in line with its ideas, move from the standard model to the economic and cultural model of a person, taking into account the dualism of his economic motives. This perspective focuses on the creation of a system paradigm adequate to the modern economy for studying the endogenous processes of its transformation and the formation of mechanisms for the successful sovereign development of the national economy.
CONFERENCES, SYMPOSIUMS, SEMINARS, COMPETITIONS
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