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Economics of Contemporary Russia

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No 4 (2018)
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ACTUAL PROBLEMS OF ECONOMICS

7-23 700
Abstract

The greatest success in economic development will be achieved by the economic system that most fully utilizes new economic knowledge corresponding to the current development of market relations. The article is devoted to the problems of creating the economic equilibrium of the main components of the market economy system: demand and supply; total costs and total gains; national production, consumption and money circulation. Aggregate equation of equilibrium in macroeconomics achievement of balance in macroeconomics is an important factor of social and economic stability in the society. The fundamental principles of classical, Keynesian and monetary economic theories have become the theoretical and methodological basis of our scientific research. These theories very often do not describe with the features of modern economic society. Therefore, the proposed synthesis of the data of these theories, was the basis of the new mathematical models of achieving the economic equilibrium of macroeconomic indicators using economic and mathematical methods and logical conclusions. Автор: (исправлю несколько позже: «очень длинная и запутанная фраза на англ., расставьте точки) The proposed models will eliminate most of the contradiction in the economic life of a free society.

23-36 1012
Abstract

The article attempts to answer the question of what socioeconomic system is causing in the depths of evolution, and explain, why the contractual model provides the conditions for entering a new economic development stage. The conceptual basis of this is the synthesis of the author's razdatok theory with modern institutional concepts. The result of the rethinking of institutional evolution was the conclusion that the confrontation between market and razdatok (non-market, distributive) economies is replaced on integration of market and razdatok institutions in the 21st century. Therefore, the institutional dilemma is not a plan or a market, and not socialism or capitalism, but a quasi–market or contractual razdatok. Outwardly, both models look similar – resources are distributed through state orders on a competitive basis and contracts are concluded with legal guarantees. However, the quasi-market is based on the extractive synthesis, and protects the monopoly acquisition of public rent by a narrow group of individuals. Whereas the model of contractual razdatok, being a result from inclusive synthesis and the mechanism for the functioning of a social state, ensures the effective inclusion of all social groups in the process of economic development.

ECONOMICAL POLICY AND ECONOMICAL PRACTICE

37-50 975
Abstract

The article aims to explain methods of obtaining adequate statistical information on Russian FDI. Main features of different sources of Russian FDI statistics are shown. The importance of additional accurate calculations of FDI data for both qualitative and quantitative studies of Russian FDI is stressed. Evaluation methods for Russian outward FDI stocks and their geographical structure are introduced. Special attention is paid to financial reports of Russian multinational enterprises (MNEs) and their foreign assets statistics. Methodology for ranking of top non-financial MNEs is explained. “Migrant” TNCs as a special type of Russian investors has been identified. A list of 16 largest Russian non-financial MNEs (excluding “migrant” companies) is presented. At the end of 2017 it was headed by LUKOIL, Gazprom and Rosneft (they are also among the 100 largest non-financial MNEs of developing and post-socialist countries, although the latter is not reflected in the relevant UNCTAD reports). In addition, the leading Russian MNEs include steel, non-ferrous metal and transport companies, as well as diversified conglomerates (delimitation of their borders is still the subject of scientific discussions). Five Russian transnational banks with the maximum capital of foreign subsidiaries are also named in the article. It is shown that the 20 leading Russian non-financial and banking investors account for only 27% of Russian FDI stock. Even taking into account the second tier MNEs, the contribution of FDI to the company's subsidiaries is less than 50% – the rest FDI stock is accounted for investments in foreign real estate and various financial manipulations of Russians.

50-65 678
Abstract

This article presents the developed aggregated simulation model of foreign economic interaction of the Russian Federation with partner countries. The bi-criterion optimization problem of the rational control of foreign trade activities is formulated and solved with consideration of the differently directed interests of the Russian Federation and partner countries. The possibilities of such links to be balanced are being studied depending on different scenarios reflecting the foreign trade strategy characteristic for the respective groups of countries (EU, APEC, EEC, etc.). The proposed simulation model implemented in AnyLogic allowed investigating the influence of the key control parameters of foreign economic activity on the characteristics of the interrelationships of the Russian Federation with other countries. Suboptimal (scenario) values of import duties and quotas that provide the best influence on the forecast dynamics of the foreign trade turnover of the Russian Federation are calculated.

65-84 735
Abstract

The aim of this article is to augment the cognitive mapping procedure and that of the analysis of cognitive diversity to transform them from the research method into the instrument of decision-making support to promote the implementation of the Magacience capacity (the large-scale co-specialized mega-class research facilities for collective use) in regard of large-scale interdisciplinary projects. An important effect of the Megascience is an opportunity for multidisciplinary research and implementation of the research outcome in business sector. In the business intelligence perspective, the Megascience can be described as a distributed network of intangible assets with concentration of the tangible capital. The large cognitive diversity, information overload and the tacit knowledge peculiar to science-business interaction poses the challenges for data retrieval, information filtering and knowledge presentation in Megascience projects. This study objective is to develop decision making framework for the application of the participatory cognitive mapping to drive the decision process in the science-business interaction within the Megascience. The article meets the challenge of the developing an analytical approach for in order to stimulate the decision-making process in application to the complex interdisciplinary and innovative projects, such as, those of Megascience. The article presents an analytical approach for applying the participating cognitive mapping for the support of decision-making involving the interaction of representatives of different disciplines, as well as representatives of the business community, including the algorithm of the new management procedure. According to this approach, the data retrieval, information filtering and knowledge presentation are performed through the cycles of humanmachine interaction which are repeated until achieving the distance ratio target. This framework makes it possible to present shared knowledge/mindset of decision making team. The main advantage of the proposed framework is to offset the subjectivity in building the pool of original constructs by filtering the semi-structured big data. The results allow managers to solve the most complicated task of dealing with the complexity, not only for the complex systems of project type, but also for object type systems, such as a country, region, industry, enterprise.

85-102 3590
Abstract

Monetary policy affects a number of key parameters of the economic system largely determine the dynamics of the economy, particularly on interest rates, exchange rate, and amount of money high performance. In the present conditions of the Russian economy direct impact interest rates have no stake on credit and deposit operations of the Central Bank, because they determine the minimum rate of return of assets acceptable to banks. High deposit rate of the Central Bank distorts the asset composition of banks, suppresses their loan and investment activity. Even a small reduction in deposit rates of the Central Bank in 2017 has helped spur the credit policy of banks. The article analyzes the effects of exchange rate changes depending on the currency in which exports and imports are paid. The weakening of the ruble to reserve currencies makes the purchase of Russian exports more profitable for foreign buyers only if the exports are paid in rubles. If the export settlements are made in dollars and other reserve currencies, the weakening of the ruble is beneficial for exporters only at the expense of the domestic economy. The increasing domestic debt exceeding the size of the budget deficit is associated with the reduction of the monetary base, or slowing its growth. In fact, interest-free liabilities of the extended government (reserve money) in this case, replaced with interest obligations (government bonds). The relatively stable size of the money supply, the Central Bank would allow maintaining a sustainable budget deficit, and the increase in the deficit during the depression could be financed by increase in public debt and spending of foreign exchange reserves, in particular – budget funds.

102-114 687
Abstract

The loss of competitiveness by global companies that held leading positions in their industries and had significant core competencies for a very long time highlights a need for the analysis of such a phenomenon as long-term competitiveness. The aim of the research is to discover major causes of the loss of competitiveness. The goals include the detection of breaking points that force companies to remold their business activities aswell as the determination of factors that bring about the emergence of breaking points. The subject of sustainable competitiveness relates to both economics and management. That is why numerous theories including the neoclassical one, the institutional one etc. are applied to the study. The research methods include the case-study method as well as structural and comparative analysis. The study of 33 companies (from the USA, Canada, Germany, Sweden, China, South Korea and Japan) in five industries helps to reveal the most common breaking points as well as to determine and classify the internal and external factors that lead to them. The internal factors include crises of growth, diversification crises, innovation crises, reputation crises etc. The external ones include political, technological, economic and natural problems. The authors of the paper reach the conclusion that the loss of competitiveness by a company happens as a result of combined influence of internal and external factors.

114-125 640
Abstract

The article is an attempt to evaluate the impact of the increase in average wages under conditions of excess of growth rate of wage on rate of growth of productivity. It is shown that in modern Russian economy there was such relationship of these rates. A brief overview of the long-term discussion about the admissibility or inadmissibility of wage increases in these conditions is given. The increase of the wage fund with a little change in the number of employees treats as an analogue of the transfer. The method of analysis of macroeconomic indicators arising from such increase is proposed, which is based on the concept of multiplicative growth of gross national product. The consequences of the increase in wages of employees in the public sector and in commercial structures are considered separately. Take into account the factors that increase the personal consumption of employees and caused by rising costs of labor reduce the profit of the entrepreneurs. The impact of the decrease in profits on the reduction of personal consumption of entrepreneurs and investments from their own funds is taken into account. Тhe calculations showed that in modern Russia the negative consequences of wage increases in the form of inflationary pressures and falling business profits are temporary. According to our calculations, the threat of inflation due to the growth of wages, both in the budget and in the commercial sphere, remains a little more than a year, and to the initial loss of profits of entrepreneurs were compensated by the growth of production volumes, it will take about two years. The result of the analysis is the following conclusion: the increase in the average wage in Russia has not only an important social value, but also is the measure conducive to the growth of the national economy.

BOOKSHELF

INFORMATIONAL TECHNOLOGIES IN ECONOMICS

126-143 745
Abstract

The paper seeks to understand what purposes underlie the global digital economy project, what objective requests it is responding to and what economic tasks it really intends to solve. We try to show that the main beneficiaries of global digitalization will be the major TNCs in electronics, ICT and Internet sphere as well the financial sector, which are faced with a profound transformation through the use of ICT based financial technologies. The extremely effective model of innovation developed by ICT giants by the beginning of the 2000s, which ensured high growth rates over decades, have come to exhaustion, reaching technological limitations. In order to maintain the rental income mechanism they have created, the ICT giants have to move to an extensive development model by creating numerous new mass markets, and transfer the capital surplus, which can no longer be developed within the ICT sector, into an area with higher growth potential. It appears that this area will be the financial and banking industry and the global project of digital economy serves to solve the mentioned tasks. The near goal is to consolidate asserts globally for building a fundamentally new digital infrastructure based on microelectronic and software products on a worldwide scale. This extensive infrastructure is indispensable condition for the further development of new generation of financial and organizational innovations which is conceptualized under “the forth industrial revolution” brand and is believed to create new mechanism of economic growth.

144-154 746
Abstract

Article has an overview and analytical nature and is devoted to the study of the main trends in the information and communication services market on the basis of statistical data for 2010–2017. The relationship between the development of the information and communication technologies (ICT) sector and the efficiency of social production is considered. The results of a large-scale survey of the Economic Intelligence Unit company using a macroeconomic model based on statistics for 1995–2002 are presented and interpreted for 60 countries. It is shown that R. Solow's paradox can be solved on the basis of the revealed nonlinear dependences between the development of ICT and such macroeconomic indicators as GDP per person and labor productivity, which have a significant inertial log. Conclusions have been drawn on the need to develop an infrastructure for consuming ICT services in order to obtain the expected macro effects from its development. It was suggested that there might be a widening gap between the leading countries and countries that are lagging behind in the level of ICT development. The place of Russia in the world process of development of ITtechnologies is determined by comparing the network readiness index and the macroeconomic indicator of the share of the ICT sector in GDP by different countries. The problems hindering the development of the Russian ICT sector have been identified and a conclusion has been drawn on the need to concentrate efforts on innovative development projectstechnologies that have a wide range of uses, high efficiency and a relatively small recoil log. In the article, the blockchain technology is considered as an example and the potential of its application in the financial, investment and entrepreneurial activities of the Russian economy is analyzed.

IN THE DEPARTMENT OF SOCIAL SCIENCES AND ECONOMICS SECTION

SCIENCE LIFE CHRONICLE



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ISSN 1609-1442 (Print)
ISSN 2618-8996 (Online)