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Economics of Contemporary Russia

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No 3 (2024)
https://doi.org/10.33293/1609-1442-2024-3(106)

ACTUAL PROBLEMS OF ECONOMICS

7-23 330
Abstract

The importance of human potential as a factor of economic development was long recognized in economics. It proposed an interpretation of the economic realization of this role in the form of “human capital”. However, there are significant doubts about both the theoretical correctness of such an interpretation and its empirical validity. In addition, the concept of “human capital” significantly diminishes the role of human potential in production. To better assess this role, it is necessary to turn to the study of how human potential realizes itself in creative activity. The economic appropriation of the results of this creative activity brings additional income, which takes the form of intellectual rent. However, the capitalist form of appropriation of the results of the use of human creative potential limits the possibilities of its complete deployment and application. Moreover, the results of creative activity often take the form of false, illusory benefits, and even turn against human development. In order to ensure a better social effect of the use of human potential, it is necessary to find forms of support its development that will better correspond to its internal content. The peculiarity of creative activity, which consists in the fact that it acts not only as a means of achieving any goals, but also as an end in itself, allows the widest opportunities for the use of human potential if you provide each person with conditions for the complete development and application of his abilities. To achieve this, it is necessary to ensure priority development of the areas of formation and development of human potential (education, health care, science and culture) and true equality of the opportunities for the development of the abilities in each person, which will create the best possible base for the use of national human potential. Possible ways to solve these problems may be: 1) the implementation a policy of state paternalism and expand the production of so-called patronized goods, and 2) the gradual mitigation of the alienation of man from ownership and management in the economy, which requires the search for a partial compromise between the interests of employers and employees.

24-37 239
Abstract

An econometric assessment of the impact on Russia's gross domestic product (GDP) of the real primary deficit (budget impulse) and real budget expenditures is discussed. The main characteristic of the national economy is the annual growth rate of the country's real GDP in 2006–2021. An econometric model of this characteristic is constructed. The explanatory variables of the model include the values of the growth rate of the main factors of production and, in particular, the real primary budget deficit (budget impulse) and the growth rate of real budget expenditures. The main results of the work are as follows. 1. The growth rate of Russia's real GDP is significantly positively influenced by both the real primary budget surplus (budget impulse – as defined by the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia) and the growth rate of real budget expenditures. 2. Adverse events such as the global financial crisis, Western sanctions, and the pandemic have a significant negative impact on the Russian economy, reducing the growth rate of real GDP by an average of 2% per year.

37-50 181
Abstract

Vector autoregressions are one of the rapidly developing areas of many areas of modern science. They are actively used in modeling and forecasting various economic processes, most often in modeling the stock market and retail prices. Their most important advantage is the ability to consider the simultaneous influence of modeled indicators not only from their past values, but also from the past values of other indicators interrelated with them. The main problem why vector autoregressions are not actively used in practice (as they deserve) is the “curse of dimensionality”, which consists in a quadratic increase in the number of model coefficients depending on the increase in the dimension of the modeled vector. This circumstance leads to the fact that researchers in various fields of modern science are forced to limit the dimension of the vector, including only the most important ones in the model, or reducing the order of autoregression. Attempts to overcome the “curse of dimensionality” by using special mathematical methods result in a significant complication of the mathematical apparatus for constructing vector autoregressions, which does not contribute to the expansion of the practice of using vector autoregressions. The article proposes to use for this purpose a step-by-step decomposition method for constructing vector autoregressions of any dimension, which makes the process of constructing these models simple and accessible to any researcher. To test the possibility of using this method in practice, data series on the dynamics of eight main industry indices of the Moscow Exchange were used. At the same time, it was decided to construct a large vector autoregression of the order of p = 10. Using the least squares method, a total of 648 unknown coefficients of this model were estimated. The verification of this model was confirmed by simple autoregressions.

ECONOMICAL POLICY AND ECONOMICAL PRACTICE

51-65 232
Abstract

The problem of the development of the petrochemical industry in Russia in the context of economic sanctions, which caused the complete refusal of the largest manufacturers of technologies and equipment to supply them to Russia, is considered. The mechanisms of adaptation of the industry to the tightening of the regime of foreign economic sanctions have been studied and the main directions of compensation for sanctions impacts have been identified. The possibilities of the parallel import mechanism for continuing the implementation of started investment projects and organizing new routes for supplying products of Russian petrochemical companies to the world market are shown. The dynamics of the main economic indicators of the development of the petrochemical industry according to Rosstat data from 2011 to 2023 is presented (production of the most significant products, industry imports and exports etc.) and assessed the medium-term prospects for the implementation of the industry strategy of import substitution. It is shown that the ratio of exports and imports of petrochemical industry products indicates the effective operation of parallel imports and diversification of sales markets, as well as the optimization of supply chains, primarily by changing the structure of exports with a focus on new markets – to Asian countries, Turkey, a number of countries in South America and Africa. The methodology for cluster development of the petrochemical industry is described and its advantages are identified. The concept of “one step back – two steps forward” was formulated as a way to complete already started projects and, most importantly, to implement new industry development projects based on fundamentally new technologies of the future that need to be developed now. A conclusion is made about the need to transition from the traditional export business model of industry development to a model with partial orientation towards domestic markets for petrochemical products in Russia. At the same time, sanctions stimulate new approaches to the development of the domestic petrochemical industry.

65-77 239
Abstract

This article notes that climate change, especially global warming, is a problem both at the global level and for many national economies. As a result, a new ideology appeared – “green” and a new type of economy – “green”. The basis of the “green” economy is electronics, computer and space technologies, biotechnologies, the latest energy sources and telecommunications. The main features of the “green” economy are dynamism, innovation, mass individualization, scientific approach and network solutions. This article examines the socio-­economic essence of the “green” economy, as well as the main directions and prospects for its development. It is noted that the formation of a “green” economy will provide many benefits, including increased labor productivity and income, reduction of unemployment and inflation. The ultimate goal of a green economy is to improve people's living standards in the long term and reduce environmental and economic risks for future generations. The article focuses on the different approaches of countries to the transition to a “green” economy due to differences in climate and economic structure. However, a number of countries have similar interests and priorities in achieving climate goals, which leads to the creation of alliances and associations to address these issues. The Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) is becoming one of such unions, setting a common task – the introduction of the principles of a “green” economy. The article analyzes the implementation of these principles in the EAEU and notes that the countries of this Union are actively working on the formation of a “green” economy, creating technologies for modernization and increasing competitiveness, “Eurasian technology platforms”.

INFORMATIONAL TECHNOLOGIES IN ECONOMICS

78-92 276
Abstract

The development of digital technologies has not only allowed humanity to make a significant leap forward in terms of technical development, but also brought back to reality the problem of colonization already at a new digital stage. The purpose of this study was to determine how digital colonization manifests itself in the modern world. To do this, the following tasks were solved: an analysis of publications showing the formation of digital colonization was conducted; the main subjects of digital colonization and tools for influencing countries and their populations were identified. The results are the identification of three entities engaged in digital colonization: states, digital companies owning social networks and search engines, as well as large industrial companies producing high-tech products; the identification of two areas of digital colonization. The first direction implies the export of resources, which includes both the appropriation of personal data of users of digital products, and the export of labor, which can be performed not only explicitly but also in a hidden way through telemigration. The second direction illustrates methods of influencing countries and populations, including the use of both mass media and search tools, as well as sanctions pressure, including the termination of access to the use of goods and services of foreign companies. A number of steps have been proposed that will allow countries, including Russia, not only to increase their technological sovereignty and reduce the impact of digital colonization, but also to strengthen ties with friendly developing countries and reduce the possibility of digital colonization in the world.

92-104 301
Abstract

In nowadays work is underway on formation of a new national project “Data Economy”. This project is aimed at the innovative development of the Russian economy based on the introduction and use of digital technologies. It is a logical continuation of the national “Digital Economy project”, which is operating since 2019. The new project covers business, government agencies, and the social sphere. It is necessary to modernize existing management solutions and tools, as well as to develop new approaches to their implementation to ensure economic growth and social development. Despite the fact that the Russian Federation is planning to transit from the digital economy to a new level – the data economy, it should be noted that there is still no common understanding in the scientific world of what “data economy” is. The categories and tools that characterize it were studied. The authors consider such fundamental categories and tools of the digital economy, as digitalization, digital transformation, digital maturity, digital technologies etc. The authors conclude that they will preserve and transform in the new ecosystem of the data economy, taking into account the achievement of the newly set goals for functioning of economy. The article presents the authors’ model of the transition from the digital economy to the data economy, taking into account both its existing and new components. The authors pay attention to the construction of an integration scheme “science–education–technology–production”. The scheme is based on digital data and digital technologies, which will contribute to the development of high-tech and knowledge-­intensive sectors. The study of the process of transition from the digital economy to the data economy allows concluding the regularity of this process and its importance for the development of the Russian economy. The transition to a knowledge economy will bring the Russian economy to a new level of development and ensure technological sovereignty.

HISTORY OF ECONOMICS IN DOCUMENTS AND IN THE CONTEMPORARY’S REMEMBRANCES

105-116 127
Abstract

The relevance of understanding the role of financial policy in the context of the global geopolitical and macroeconomic crises makes it promising, from a scientific point of view, to rethink the historical experience accumulated in the field of financial regulation in the past. One such example of historical experience of past years is the financial activities of V.N. Kokovtsov, and the course he pursued to ensure budgetary balance, save public funds and accumulate the country's gold reserves. While these directions in financial policy are unconditional, they must meet the challenges of the time, the characteristics of the period being experienced, and be achieved by the most optimal means. In this regard, the study reveals the measure of compliance/inconsistency of these areas of financial policy and specifically that proposed by V.N. Kokovtsov programs to the challenges of time. The extraordinary character of the “period of V.N. Kokovtsov”, due to significant political and economic events of that time. The purpose of the study is to analyze and evaluate the financial policy of V.N. Kokovtsov, its strengths and weaknesses, specific directions, reasons for failure and long-term socio-­economic consequences. The objectives of the study are: analysis of budget policy; tax policy analysis; analysis of the policy for the formation of the country's gold reserves. The study used dialectical and historical­retrospective approaches, methods of structural-­functional and program-target analysis. As a result of the study, a critical assessment of the initial theoretical principles and practical results of V.N.’s conservative financial policy was given. Kokovtsov, the most problematic aspects of this policy within the period 1904–1914 are highlighted. (years of the ministry of V.N. Kokovtsov).

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ISSN 1609-1442 (Print)
ISSN 2618-8996 (Online)