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Economics of Contemporary Russia

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No 2 (2024)
https://doi.org/10.33293/1609-1442-2024-2(105)

ACTUAL PROBLEMS OF ECONOMICS

7-16 466
Abstract

The article studies the relationship between ethics and economics in the context of current system’s functioning of the most important social institutions. The purpose of the study is to theoretically analyze the relation between the economic and ethical structure of society and to develop recommendations for the practical application of the results ща designing a strategy for the country's socio-economic development. The research is based on the principles of the systems approach, space-time analysis and the methodology of systemic socio-economic theory. The structure of economic paradigms is compared to the structure of ethical paradigms. The conclusion is made about their mutual conditionality and influence on the type of social structure. The dual nature of the relationship between economics and ethics is substantiated. This duality is manifested in the separation of the subject of economics and ethics in systemic terms: if the economic subjects are the processes aimed at mastering the forces of nature, then the subjects of ethics are the processes aimed at improving the system of intra-societal relations. Economics in society is comprehensive, while ethics has the property of widespread penetration into the consciousness of economic subjects. The economic and ethical spheres all together determine the structure and functions of socio-economic space-time. Strengthening the institution of reputation contributes to the dissemination and consolidation of traditional values and raising the ethical level of society. It is necessary to represent it in the strategy of the country's socio-economic development along with target guidelines for economic dynamics, as well as the desired state of the spiritual sphere of the population and generally accepted principles of ethical behavior. The possibilities of applying ethical principles in solving the problems of location and development of productive forces in the country are explored.

16-28 324
Abstract

Man's economic activity and his worldview are closely interrelated, and this relationship has attracted the attention of philosophers and scientists for centuries. When making economic decisions, a person entered into relations of cooperation, collaboration and/or competition and even war. Since ancient times, war was used by man as a tool for resolving economic conflicts and achieving economic interests and evolved along with the development of socio-economic systems and the worldview of man himself. The economic worldview and socio-economic systems, in turn, evolve under the influence of the development of economic activity, philosophical knowledge, science and technology. In the development of mankind, we can distinguish eras of dominance of a certain philosophical paradigm (classicism, modernity, postmodernity, metamodernity), which determined the worldview of people, the “spirit of the times”, as well as their economic activities, the choice of tools for resolving economic conflicts and achieving economic interests, including characteristics and distinctive features of wars. Since in the modern global world of the metamodern era, military conflicts have a significant impact on the economic decisions of economic entities, identifying the distinctive features of modern wars in conjunction with the philosophy of metamodernism is relevant. The purpose of the study is to identify the distinctive characteristics of war as an economic instrument in each of the above-mentioned eras in conjunction with the dominant philosophical paradigm and the characteristics of the socio-economic systems of the parties to military conflicts, as well as to substantiate the key features of war in the modern metamodern era. To achieve this goal, the following tasks were solved: a comparative historical and economic analysis of the wars of the eras of classicism, modernity, postmodernity, and metamodernity was be carried out; differences between them were identified according to a number of criteria. The relationship between the characteristics of wars and the dominant philosophical paradigm were identified. The role of war in the economy of metamodernity was determined. The research methodology was based on a synthesis of historical and economic methodology, a systemic economic approach, and comparative analysis, which determined the novelty of the research results: the rationale for the relationship of war as a tool for solving economic conflicts and/or realizing economic interests with the dominant philosophical paradigm.

29-38 195
Abstract

The article substantiates the thesis that management of human behavior is the management of each person behavior. In turn, each person behavior depends on the individual mental model formed in his mind. It is shown that the existence of public institutions as rules of conduct and the enforcement of their execution is a systemic necessity and they are established on the basis of values and goals of those people who establish them. The article proposes a hierarchy of behavior attributes in an individual mental model that defines human behavior. It is shown that behavior style of each person is the result of a constant comparison of rules and goals of society development with individual goals. Man as a system strives for stability and self-preservation. The set of values formed in an individual mental model determines the parameters of sustainability and self-preservation in the form of a set of needs, a range of benefits and ways to obtain them. The successful development of the system is possible only with the joint directed development of each system element. It is shown that the systemic goal of socio-economic relations is to increase well-being of each person as a creator of goods and his household, as well as the comprehensive development of each person as a member of society. The systemic need for management consists in forming a set of values based on these goals, which means a set of needs, and changing the rules for the creation, distribution and exchange of goods corresponding to these goals. It is shown that only in this case the common goals underlying the formation of an individual mental model will coincide with the goals of human development as a system and ensure harmonious behavior of people. Otherwise, people use public conformity for self-preservation and stability, or nonconformism as a style of behavior aimed at realizing values in an individual mental model.

38-52 252
Abstract

The climate agenda is beginning to have a significant impact on the economic policies of different countries. We argue that the established global climate regulation can be seen not only as a co-ordinated project of forming new institutions, but also as a competition of separate projects, one of which takes the place of the global one. The aim of our paper is to characterise the institutional project of climate regulation as the result of collective choices to adopt and implement measures to internalise the global externalities of climate change. We conducted an institutional analysis of the selection of the main directions and instruments of climate regulation, and highlighted the criteria for this selection. The article shows that in the process of coordination of interests the choice is determined by the correlation of political and economic positions of different interest groups (international organisations, countries, corporations and banks, their associations), and the interests of increasing competitiveness and strengthening control and power in the modern economy come to the fore. As a result, the low-carbon economy project is taking the place of the global climate regulation project. Its core is the energy transition, which involves replacing fossil fuels with renewable energy sources. The low carbon economy project is supported by the narratives of impending disaster, the «Net-Zero» and «Race to Zero campaign». Its main beneficiaries are developed countries as developers and suppliers of relevant technological and management solutions. The financial sector gets its share of benefits. M. Olson's formula «the majority tyrannizes and exploits the minority» is realized. We show that «distribution coalitions», when given additional resources, are willing to continue investing them in collective action to promote a low-carbon economy. We conclude that getting global climate regulation out of the «race to zero» trap involves the development of sovereign climate policies by different countries and groups of countries. These policies do not focus on following specific low-carbon development recommendations, but rather on their own socio-economic development with a view to reducing their impact on the climate system.

52-62 304
Abstract

The development of artificial intelligence (AI) necessitates both theoretical reflection on strategic changes in educational content and forms, and the exploration of AI's potential to enhance educational quality. AI will replace many activities of a person in his/her professional career and personal life. Questions arise regarding the uniquely human abilities that current AI cannot replicate. What are the strategic implications of the introduction of artificial intelligence into our lives for university education or other levels and forms of education, including the specifics of individual disciplines? We aim to summarize research findings on the distinctions between current AI and human intelligence, focusing on identifying human intelligence's specificity and promoting its development within educational systems. We are contemplating the possibility of creating a type of AI that could replace even those human abilities that the current type of AI cannot.

ECONOMICAL POLICY AND ECONOMICAL PRACTICE

63-82 212
Abstract

The article discusses issues of high-quality economic growth and development that create the foundations for sustainability and stability. An analysis of factors influencing changes in the macroeconomic situation for 2015–2022/2023 is presented. The current situation in the countries of the former USSR is considered. The main reasons limiting economic growth and development are identified, and mechanisms for overcoming them are revealed. The need to pay more attention to qualitative indicators of economic growth and development, which create the foundations of sustainability, is substantiated. In the current conditions, the qualitative component of economic growth and development is becoming increasingly important due to the increasing influence of global problems, risks, uncertainty, sanctions, and local wars. The pandemic had a certain impact on the country's economic growth, which revealed the need for sustainable financing of public investment to achieve a certain level of economic growth and development, tax revenues. The pandemic has contributed to increasing the importance of innovative projects. The adopted programs, concepts and road maps contribute to the formation of a competitive innovative industrial complex. All this, in turn, will create the basis for a qualitative improvement of the country’s existing production potential and contribute to the transition to a predominantly innovative type of development. It is advisable to realistically reflect the current situation, not to turn a blind eye to the real positive changes taking place in the country, which contribute not only to its economic, but, above all, to its political strengthening of its position in the world. The essence of economic planning is not to give a project, but to determine a direction that is adjusted depending on the situation. Economics must justify economic activity and the following chain can be shown schematically: idea – ​economic justification – ​real implementation.

83-100 299
Abstract

The article provides analysis of the influence of energy consumption on GDP in various regions and countries of the world (America, Europe, Post-Soviet space, Middle East, Africa, Asia-Pacific region). It is shown that: 1) there is a direct linear causal relationship between the growth of energy consumption and economic development in the absence of external effects in the field of energy efficiency; 2) external factors that contribute to the efficiency of energy consumption – ​institutional environment and scientific and technological achievements in the field of energy efficiency; change of the structure of the economy in favor of less energy-intensive industries. Models based on linear algebra, such as the Leontief model, can be used to describe the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth. Energy consumption in different sectors of the economy can have both positive and negative relationships with economic growth. A reduction of the share of industry and agriculture does not guarantee a simultaneous decline of energy consumption in the service sector. There is a direct linear relationship between energy consumption in the services sector as well as in the transportation sector and economic development of different countries around the world. Increased energy consumption in the transportation sector which supports economic development is connected with an increase of the well-being of the population in several countries. The inverse relationship shown by some of the study results does not indicate that all countries studied are more energy efficient. This outcome reflects only the presence of external influences that encourage energy efficiency. Energy saving is not a limiting factor for economic growth, but it does not occur in economic system without a set of external incentives in different sectors of economy.

101-124 260
Abstract

This paper is devoted to modeling the probability of default of Russian banks in 2015–2020. There are relatively few studies on defaults of Russian banks after 2015, and our work intends to partly fill this gap. The purpose of this research is to determine the main variables which significantly impact the risk of default of Russian banks. The work seeks to identify additional factors associated with an increased risk of bank defaults during a relatively stable period of development of the Russian economy (2015–2020) without external shocks, such as COVID‑19 or international sanctions. We apply an integrated approach to modeling the risk of bank defaults. Empirical methodology is represented by logit and probit models, as well as Cox regression. The set of potential predictors for bank defaults include the variables, characterizing various aspects of credit institutions functioning (in accordance with the CAMELS system), as well as macroeconomic variables. The most significant predictors of default turn out to be the capital adequacy ratio N1, bank net assets, the ratio of total loans to assets and the size of secured loan portfolio. In general, the results we obtain are consistent with the CAMELS system of indicators assessing the sustainability of commercial banks, while the impact of macroeconomic indicators tends to be insignificant. The results of the study could be of interest to the regulator both for the purposes of ongoing monitoring of financial stability as well as for default risk prevention; to credit institutions which elaborate internal systems for monitoring their financial soundness; and to financial market participants to select the most stable companies in terms of investment and allocation of funds. Further directions of research are related to the inclusion of a crisis period into the analysis and comparing the set of significant predictors for bank defaults during a crisis and a stable period of economic development, as well as the use of alternative methods, in particular, machine learning algorithms.

125-139 320
Abstract

Decision-making in case of sudden changes in the external environment of the enterprise can occur in a situation of time interval restrictions. Cognitive biases inherent in a manager can influence such decisions when there is not enough time. The purpose of this work is to clarify the influence of cognitive biases on the subjective perception of the probability of events occurring when making decisions. Such cognitive biases can also affect risk analysis and assessment, consumer behavior etc. The development of anti-risk control impacts will be implemented with this in mind. The research is based on the methodological tools of the operational theory of risk management, the fundamentals of behavioral economics developed in the works of D. Kahneman and A. Tversky, and the so-called «theory of two systems (Systems 1 and Systems 2)». Individual examples of cognitive biases in decision-making under the influence of System 1 are considered. The results of an experiment to identify quantitative estimates of the perception of the probability of events occurring based on a visual series of images presented to subjects with System 1 turned on and System 2 suppressed are described. The solutions to predictive problems are assessed. It seems reasonable to take into account all the problems identified during the implementation of the experiment. It is planned to conduct a new series of experiments with specified conditions, since expanding and clarifying the understanding of the subjective perception of probability by economic agents can help revise many theories in the field of preparing managerial decision-making and consumer behavior. Recommendations for the introduction of anti-risk control impacts with the inclusion of System 2 to minimize the impact of cognitive distortions on decisions are proposed

139-150 418
Abstract

The article deals with problems in the application of the innovative ecosystem concept. The research is based on systems theory, innovation system theory, the theory of regional innovation systems, and the concept of open innovation. The purpose of the study is to determine the theoretical basis for applying the ecosystem concept to the development of innovation systems in regions. In the course of the study the preconditions for the formation of innovative ecosystems in the regions (acceleration of innovation; complexity of the innovation process and interdisciplinary approach to innovation; application of the concept of open innovation; acceleration of introducing the innovation to the market; possibility of functional complementarity and cooperation; possibility of joint and more efficient use of resources and infrastructure; regional differentiation; innovation risks sharing) were identified. During the work the approaches to the concept of innovation ecosystem that reflect the multidimensionality of innovation ecosystems were revealed. The article clarifies the features of the innovative ecosystems (complexity, openness, interdependence and complementarity of elements, dynamism, non-linearity) and the innovative ecosystems principles (emergence, synergy, adaptability, self-development, sustainability, self-organization, co-evolution). The study highlights the mechanisms of interactions among subjects of the innovation ecosystem (cooperation, competition, coordination, regulation, joint management) that lead to a synergetic effect for the actors of the innovation ecosystem. The obtained results systematize knowledge about innovative ecosystems and form a theoretical basis for the features of their formation and development in the regions, which can find practical application when identifying instruments of regional innovation policy.



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ISSN 1609-1442 (Print)
ISSN 2618-8996 (Online)