On Assessing the Impact of Coronavirus Epidemic in Russia on Population Incomes

The paper discusses an approach to assessing the impact of the coronavirus epidemic in Russia on economic efficiency and, as a result, on the monetary income of the country's population. The approach used is based on the application of the methodology of mathematical modeling. Based on the analysis of statistical information, it is shown that there is a correlation between the dynamics of the average per capita income of the population and GDP. To assess the dynamics of GDP, a dynamic model of the impact of restrictive measures aimed at curbing the spread of the coronavirus epidemic on macroeconomic efficiency is constructed. The main hypothesis of the model is that the main factor affecting the efficiency of the economy is the productivity of workers who create GDP. In the constructed model, all employees are divided into three groups. The first group – ​workers whose activities were not affected by the coronavirus; the second group-workers whose productivity decreased due to the coronavirus; the third group-workers whose productivity fully or partially recovered after the easing of restrictive measures. As a result, the dynamics of GDP is determined by a system of three ordinary differential equations with parameters depended on the epidemiological situation. To assess the indicators that characterize the spread of infection and affect the parameters of the macroeconomic efficiency model, a discrete modification of the classical SIR-model of the epidemic with piecewise constant parameters is constructed. This model allowed us to estimate the dynamics of the average for the four day values of the basic reproductive numbers and other indicators of spread of infection through the use of official statistical information in the base period, and to perform scenario calculations for the development of the epidemic in Moscow and beyond until July 2021 Developed modification of the SIR model allows for its clarification with regard to the influence of vaccination on the dynamics of epidemiological process.

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