GDP Dynamics as a Superposition of N. D. Kondratieff Technological Waves
https://doi.org/10.33293/1609-1442-2020-2(89)-7-22
Abstract
A review of publications on the theory of long waves by Kondratieff–Schumpeter has shown that one of the imperfect elements of this theory in the case of modeling on their basis of GDP dynamics is the correlation of the dynamics of these waves with the dynamics of the observed values of GDP. The point is that the mathematical models currently used to describe periodic fluctuations in economic activity under this theory have a horizontal trend, and when moving to describe the growing (or declining) dynamics of GDP, it is necessary to include an exogenous trend that is not related to this theory in any way. This situation violates its integrity and often serves as one of the arguments against the adequacy of this theory to real economic processes. This article proposes a model of GDP dynamics based on the superposition of long Kondratieff waves and does not require the inclusion of exogenous trend. In this model, in addition to the generally accepted parameters of long waves, namely, the beginning and length of the wave period, two new parameters arise: the magnitude of its amplitude and the rate of change of this amplitude. These parameters allow you to configure the GDP model to describe the dynamics of the GDP of different countries, taking into account their real differences in the size of GDP. The problems of verification of the parameters of the proposed model arising in connection with the multi-extremality of the function describing this model are considered. Verification of the parameters of this model on specific data is carried out on the values of US GDP for the period from 1790 to 2018. The results of testing the model showed that the superposition of long Kondratieff–Schumpeter waves well describe the dynamics of US GDP over the entire period, and the model parameters are quite consistent with their generally recognized values.
Keywords
GDP USA,
long waves,
Kondratieff,
periodic functions,
technological structures,
parameter estimation
Journal of Economic Literature (JEL): C51; C63; E32; O11; O51
About the Author
Petr F. Andrukovich
Central Economics and Mathematics Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
References
1. Yakovets Yu.V. (1993). Scientific N. D. Kondratieff heritage: modern estimates. Kondratieff N. D. Selected works. Moscow, Ekonomika, pp. 8–13 (in Russian).
2. Akaev A. A. (2009). Modern financial and economic crisis in the light of the theory of innovative and technological development of the economy and management of the innovation process. System monitoring: Global and regional development. Ed. by D. A. Khalturina, A. V. Korotaev. Moscow, UrRSS, рp. 141–162 (in Russian).
3. Juglar C. (1862). Des crises commerciales et de leur retour périodique en France, en Angleterre et aux Etats-Unis. 2nd ed. Paris: Librairie Guillaumin et Cie.
4. Akaev A. A., Hirooka M. (2009). On a mathematical model for long-term forecasting of the dynamics of innovation and economic development. Reports of the Academy of Sciences, vol. 425, no. 6, pp. 727–732 (in Russian).
5. Hirooka M. (2006). Innovative dynamism and economic growth. A nonlinear perspective. Cheltenham (UK); Northampton (USA): Edward Elgar.
6. Akaev A. A., Turduev M. (2010). On one approach to the mathematical description of the long-term dynamics of economic development, based on the doctrine of large cycles by N. D. Kondratieff. Forecast and modeling of crises and world dynamics. Ed. by A. A. Akaev, A. V. Korotaev, G. G. Malinetsky. Moscow: LKI Publishing house, ch. 2 (in Russian).
7. Kitchin J. (1923). Cycles and trends in economic factors. Review of Economics and Statistics, vol. 5, no. 1, pp. 10–16.
8. Akaev A. A. (2012). Mathematical foundations of the innovation-cyclical theory of economic development by Schumpeter–Kondratieff. Kondratieff waves: aspects and prospects. Ed. by A. A. Akaev, R. S. Grinber. Volgograd, Uchitel, p. 314–341 (in Russian).
9. Kuznets S. (1955). Economic growth and income inequality. The American Economic Review, vol. 45, no. 1, pp. 1–28.
10. Andrukovich P.F. (2018). Trend model in the framework of the theory of long waves. Theory and practice of institutional transformations in Russia, no. 44, рp. 26–34 (in Russian).
11. Kuznets S. (1960). Population change and aggregate output. Demographic and Economic.
12. Andrukovich P. F. (2020). Notes on the principles of constructing models for economic indicators predicting (with «ProRosEc» forecast system as an example). Economics and Mathematical Methods, vol. 56, no. 2, рp. 66–76 (in Russian).
13. Mensch G. (1979). Stalemate in Technology – innovations overcome the depression. N.Y., Ballinger.
14. Bell D. (1999). The future post-industrial society. Moscow, Academy (in Russian).
15. Glazyev S.Yu. (1993). Theory of long-term technical and economic development. Moscow, Vladar (in Russian).
16. Glazyev S.Yu. (2009). The world economic crisis as a process of changing technological structures. Voprosy Ekonomiki, no. 3, pp. 26–32 (in Russian).
17. Grinin L. E. (2012). Kondratieff waves, technological structures and the theory of production revolutions. Kondratieff waves. Aspects and perspectives. Ed. by A. A. Akaev, R. S. Grinberg et al. Volgograd, Uchitel, pp. 222–262 (in Russian).
18. Grinin L. E., Korotaev A.V. (2012). Global crisis in retrospect. A brief history of rises and downs: from Lycurgus to Alan Greenspan. Moscow, Librokom, 336 p. (in Russian).
19. Davydov A.Yu. (2010) “Big cycles” of the American economy. Canada. Economy–politics–culture, no. 2, pp. 3–18 (in Russian).
20. Dementyev V.E. (2012). Long waves in the economy: investment aspect. Preprint # WP/2012/297. Moscow, CEMI RAS, 59 p. (in Russian).
21. Dementyev V. E. (2014). Kondratieff cycles and post-industrial economics. Economic Sciences of Contemporary Russia, no. 4 (67), pp. 7–19 (in Russian).
22. Dubovsky S. V. (2012). Modeling Kondratieff cycles and predicting crises. Kondratieff waves: aspects and prospects, pp. 179–188 (in Russian).
23. Inozemtsev V. L. (2000). Modern post-industrial society: Nature, contradictions, and perspectives. Introduction. Moscow, Logos (in Russian).
24. Klepach A. N., Kuranov G. O. (2013). On cyclical waves in the development of the US and Russian economy. Voprosy Ekonomiki, no. 11, pp. 4–33 (in Russian).
25. Kondratieff N. D. (1925). Big cycles of conjuncture. Voprosy Konjunktury, vol. 1, no. 1, pp. 28–79 (in Russian).
26. Kondratieff N. D. (1989). Problems of economic dynamics. Moscow, Ekonomika (in Russian).
27. Kondratieff N. D. (2002). Large cycles of conjuncture and the theory of foresight. Moscow, Ekonomika (in Russian).
28. Korotayev A. V. (2006). Periodization of the history of the World-system and mathematical macromodels of socio-historical processes. History and mathematics: problems of periodization of historical macro processes. Ed. by L. E. Grinin, A. V. Korotaev, S.Yu. Malkov. Moscow, URCC, pp. 116–167 (in Russian).
29. Korotayev A. V., Cirel S. V. (2010). Kondratieff waves in the world-system economic dynamics. Forecast and modeling of crises and world dynamics. Ed by A. A. Akaev, A. V. Korotaev, G. G. Malinetsky. Moscow, LKI Publishing House, ch. 10 (in Russian).
30. Kostyuk V. N. (2002). Kondratieff long waves and the theory of long-term economic growth. Social Sciences and Modernity, no. 6, pp. 90–97 (in Russian).
31. Mayevsky V. I. (1994). Economic evolution and economic genetics. Voprosy Ekonomiki, no. 5, pp. 4–21 (in Russian).
32. McInerney D. (2009). USA. A traveler’s history of the USA. Moscow, Eksmo; SPb/: Midgard, 736 p. (in Russian).
33. Malkov S.Yu., Kirdina S. G. (2010). Hierarchy of world dynamics models and global socio-economic processes. Forecasting and modeling of crises and global dynamics. Moscow, LKI Publishing House, pp. 249–261 (in Russian).
34. Menshikov S. M., Klimenko L. A. (1989). Long waves in the economy: When society changes its skin. Moscow, International Relations (in Russian).
35. Sadovnichy V. A., Akaev A. A., Korotaev A. V., Malkov S.Yu. (2012). Modeling and forecasting of world dynamics. Scientific Council for the program of fundamental research of the RAS Presidium “Economics and sociology of knowledge”. Moscow, ISPI RAS (in Russian).
36. Smirnov A. S. (2012). One more time about the myth of the Kondratieff waves. The Economist, no. 4, pp. 36–60 (in Russian).
37. Schumpeter J. A. (1982). The theory of economic development. Moscow, Progress (in Russian).
38. Yakovets Yu.V. (1993). Scientific N. D. Kondratieff heritage: modern estimates. Kondratieff N. D. Selected works. Moscow, Ekonomika, pp. 8–13 (in Russian).
39. Juglar C. (1862). Des crises commerciales et de leur retour périodique en France, en Angleterre et aux Etats-Unis. 2nd ed. Paris: Librairie Guillaumin et Cie.
40. Hirooka M. (2006). Innovative dynamism and economic growth. A nonlinear perspective. Cheltenham (UK); Northampton (USA): Edward Elgar.
41. Kitchin J. (1923). Cycles and trends in economic factors. Review of Economics and Statistics, vol. 5, no. 1, pp. 10–16.
42. Kuznets S. (1955). Economic growth and income inequality. The American Economic Review, vol. 45, no. 1, pp. 1–28.
43. Kuznets S. (1960). Population change and aggregate output. Demographic and Economic.
44. Mensch G. (1979). Stalemate in Technology – innovations overcome the depression. N.Y., Ballinger.
Review
For citations:
Andrukovich P.F. GDP Dynamics as a Superposition of N. D. Kondratieff Technological Waves. Economics of Contemporary Russia. 2020;(2):7-22. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.33293/1609-1442-2020-2(89)-7-22
Views:
1010
Email this article 