Risk Factors of Manufacturing Industries
Abstract
In the work a comparison of risk factors influencing the probability of a negative value of companies (stage of prebankruptcy), for various manufacturing industries: the range of financial variables and corporate governance factors. The idea of corporate financial architecture were confirmed in the Russian industry: factors affecting the corporate structure of the company (characteristics of the CEO and ownership concentration) can be effectively applied for the analysis of financial stability of companies along with traditional financial indicators, improving the predictive quality of the models. Good stability of the obtained results was confirmed by serial build and comparison of logistic regression with lasso regularization and logistic regression models for all subsets. Next, were confirmed the statistical significance of 88,1% of the explaining factors of all final specifications. During the study period 2011–2015 dynamics of the intensity of bankruptcies in the manufacturing sector were not always uniform. In the analyzed period were identified both specific and general risk factors for considered sectors. The forecast quality of the final specifications for the industries demonstrated its high level in the control samples, the value of AUC (area under ROC-curve) is in the range from 85,06% in metallurgical production to 96,12% in mechanical engineering. Empirical results show that the sectoral differentiation of risk factors in the Russian manufacturing industry can be taken into consideration by enterprises, credit institutions and regulatory authorities in the conduct of crisis management and branch transformation of the existing methodological recommendations for developing financial and investment policy of the company.
About the Author
Alexey I. Rybalka
The Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-term Forecasting;
Market Economy Institute;
National Research University Higher School of Economics, Moscow
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
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For citations:
Rybalka A.I. Risk Factors of Manufacturing Industries. Economics of Contemporary Russia. 2018;(3):93-113. (In Russ.)
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