Synchronization of Capital Movement: Russia & Brazil

This article gives a quantitative characteristic of the close ties between the dynamics of the Russian and Brazilian financial markets (in consideration to exchange ratio and stock prices). The synchronism of the dynamics of the markets in 1996-2017 is demonstrated (correlation coefficients are 0.8-0.95 in the exchange rates of the ruble and the Brazilian real, 0.89-0.92 in the stock indices). Particular emphasis is made on the parallelism of the movement of markets during crises, the possibility of mutual financial infections. We elaborate on the cause-and-effect mechanism of these types of links in the global finance. Moreover, we provide the analysis of the similarities between the Brazilian and Russian financial markets and economies that cause them to be perceived them as “close” assets by portfolio investors in global finance. Analogies are revealed in the models of collective behavior of the population, in structuring Russia and Brazil as “Latin American type” states, in the ideology of a “special national path” and “great power”. The mechanism of decisions and actions of large international investors is presented, it determines the synchronism of the financial markets of Russia and Brazil in the formation of portfolios of global financial assets, similar in risk, profitability and liquidity. The qualitative forecast of the dynamics of the financial markets of Russia and Brazil on horizons of up to 5 years as synchronous, possessing ultrahigh volatility is given. We formulate the provision that the forecast of the future of Russia to be built on the analysis of the political, economic and financial past of Brazil, given that it has always remained a market economy. The main parameters of the analysis of the features of “similarity” and “difference” are presented, which allow us to resume it in future because of the persistence of synchronism or discrepancies in the future in the dynamics of financial markets in Russia and Brazil.

валютный курс, глобальный инвестор, иностранные портфельные инвестиции, развивающиеся рынки, рынок акций, спекулятивный капитал, emerging markets, exchange rate, foreign portfolio investment, global investor, stock market, speculative capital

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