Development of enterprise strategy based on evaluation of economic risk factors

In this article the choice of an enterprise strategy is considered from the perspective of assessing the various risks associated with the implementation of each potential strategy option. These risks are reflected by the economic risk factors (ERF) presented in the concept of modeling economic risk management processes developed by scientists from the Central Economic and Mathematical Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences (CEMI RAS). The paper proposes an approach to choosing an enterprise strategy based on the analysis of each alternative according to many criteria, each of which reflects the economic risk factor of a certain subsystem using a combination of two multi-­criteria decision-­making methods: gray relation analysis and the TODIM method with the establishment of the significance of each of these criteria, determined by weighting coefficients. At the same time, a new method for calculating weight coefficients based on solving the travelling salesman problem is also proposed to find the shortest path between the values of each criterion by estimating the distances between them determined by their differences. Such a determination of the weights of the evaluated criteria corresponds to the principle of their establishment, which underlies the existing methods of objective determination of weight, based on the determination of the heterogeneity of their values, however, it will allow to more accurately determine this heterogeneity. The practical implementation of the proposed approach will allow enterprises to make a more adequate choice of strategy through a detailed multi-­criteria assessment of each alternative from the perspective of various economic risk factors, carried out using a combination of two multi-­criteria decision-­making methods, as well as a more accurate determination of the significance of each criterion reflecting the economic risk factor in the decision-­making process.

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