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Economics of Contemporary Russia

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No 1 (2018)
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ACTUAL PROBLEMS OF ECONOMICS

8-19 672
Abstract

The author proves that the revival of the Russian economy relies not only on finding a solution to reindustrialization issues which have been labeled as critical for several decades, but also on profound transformation of material production involving active development of the latest technologies fit to face the challenges of the sixth technological mode. This objective necessitates the advancement of the subject and process of knowledge generation and acquisition, i.e. science and education, hence the need to integrate production, science and education at all levels of the economy starting with production as the core link. In order to promote the development of new technologies and the integration of production, science and education under a new type of material production typical of the new industrial society of the second generation as a successor to the achievements of the new industrial society of the twentieth century as opposed to the pursuit of postindustrialist illusions, we need to foster technological convergence. The article presents a new approach to the penetration of technologies into other technologies and production under the NBICS convergence which rests on three seminal premises. First, technologies vary by their penetration potential. Second, higher penetration potential translates into higher aggregate synergy of technological interaction. Third, New technologies with a higher level of positive synergetic potential serve as the main driver of civilizational development. The author concludes that information and communications technologies currently constitute the basic technologies of the new technological mode which possess maximum penetration and integration potential. These changes rely on the trend towards the removal of humans from immediate material production processes, a sharp increase in the knowledge intensity of a product and the corresponding reduction in the share of material expenses in the process of production. If Russia develops strategic planning institutions, pursues an active industrial policy, promotes private public partnership mechanisms, ensures the accessibility of education and provides wide research support, it can become one of the world’s leading economies.

20-32 1159
Abstract

The article describes the main characteristics of the objective; virtual and augmented reality has been well studied and used in various applications in computer and production technologies. It is shown that in order to effectively implement regulated by legislative documents of the digital economy, it is legitimate to hypothesize that the technology of distributed register (blockchain) is essentially the augmented (objective-virtual) reality. This property is demonstrated by examples are abroad based on its latest financial technology and management. These facts confirm the findings of a number of leading Russian and foreign scientistseconomists and practitioners that traditional economics, with its transformation into a digital economy will lead to improved interface “man–computer”. In the framework of the relevance of the scientific research technology of the blockchain basic theoretical directions of development of the related technologies of the digital economy, including issues of communication, ensure the reliability of information, transaction reliability, continuity of business processes and development of new approaches to accounting and capitalization of the information content of the blockchain. The analysis of practice of application of technology of the blockchain showed that on its basis the transformation of the economic and financial models of business management in many countries of the world. This suggests the emergence of new levers of influence on economy development of the real sector and the formation by them of new digital platforms control many aspects of life of modern society. The applications of blockchain technology in various sectors of the economy (loans, currency, crowdfunding and credinvest, promotion and financing of innovative projects, calculation of production costs, management of business processes). Examples confirm the relevance and the fruitfulness of further study, the hypotheses about the presence of the blockchain properties of augmented reality for development as the actual technologies of the digital economy and improve their technology-based financial and other economic activities.

33-48 672
Abstract

The subject of this article is a current state of macroeconomic theory and its post 2008–2009 crisis prospects. Authors apply wide critique of key mainstream points explaining at the same time the reasons for shifting accents towards behavioral macroeconomics. The proponents of this approach have challenged key neoclassical principles of rationality and optimal behavioral of economic agents and justify the necessity for considering heterogeneity of individuals, their cognitive constraints, psychological and behavioral patterns, emotional experience, internal settings and norms. It is the irrational patterns of the individuals, they argue, that shape pessimistic or optimistic waves they are influenced by, while behavioral instincts push them towards panics, fear and males them follow the crowd. Behavioral macroeconomics provides answers, otherwise impossible to explain within traditional macroeconomic framework and further develops them. The article observes the results of a number of studies prepared as part of this scientific field in such area as theories in consumption, investment, price movements, macroeconomic fluctuations and policy. The authors postulate that behavioral macroeconomics, while challenging new macroeconomics has not yet become an alternative scientific program comparable in its size and importance with New Classical theory or New Keynesians works. Macroeconomic cases of irrational behavior offered here can be thus integrated into a larger economic theory within new synthesis as a more realistic stage in its evolution.

ECONOMICAL POLICY AND ECONOMICAL PRACTICE

49-68 821
Abstract

This article is about the extent to which the inhabitants of our planet have different means of life (the wealth they have accumulated and the incomes they receive) and how great is the inequality of potential financial opportunities for the level and quality of life of the population of different countries, both foreign and our country, regions, working in various industries and spheres of activity. System analysis will be briefly carried out not only the level of these incomes and the degree of their differentiation by the subjects under consideration, but also their dynamics, as well as the negative and positive consequences of this differentiation, possible ways and expediency of its reduction. Considerable attention will also be given to methods for measuring inequality and poverty, the real values of their indicators, the impact on them of various factors - including the status of the recipient of income (employee, manager, board member, etc.). The article consists of two parts. In the first published article was given a general overview of the problem, a look at it through the eyes of domestic and foreign prominent economists and sociologists. In the present, second part of the article, the main attention will be paid to the system analysis of the influence of various sectoral, regional and other factors on the poverty level of various population groups and the inequality of their monetary incomes in our country and abroad.

69-84 633
Abstract

The article proposes a new approach for decomposition of the real GDP of the Russian economy into trend and business cycle components based on the cointegrating regression model. The novelty of the approach is that when building the components of the long-term trend, firstly, we take into account the long-run dependence of the Russian real GDP on oil prices. Under this assumption the fall of oil prices leads to a decline in the permanent level of the real GDP. Secondly, we allow the presence of breaks in the longrun trend of non-oil component of the output. This allows us to take into account the changes in the long-term phases of Russia's economic development and distinguish periods of transformational decline and recovery growth. The business cycle component is estimated in two steps. At the first step, the non-stationary component consisting of a deterministic trend with structural breaks, and components characterizing the long-run impact of oil prices on the Russian economy are eliminated from the series of GDP (in logs). At the second step, the component of the business cycle with a periodicity of fluctuations from 6 to 32 quarters is extracted from the stationary residuals using spectral analysis methods. We find that the business cycle component for the period from 2014 to 2016 was zero while other methods give negative estimates. The new monetary policy regime of the floating exchange rate allowed the Russian real GDP to be adjusted quickly to its new lower potential level because of a drop in oil prices, while cyclical fluctuations were rather moderate.

84-96 522
Abstract

The article suggests an approach of the development of modeling tools that allow assessing the consequences of the implementation of some specific indicative plan of the region’s social sphere development that determines the dynamics of indicators of the population living standards. The possibilities of the approach are illustrated by the example of the Transbaikal Territory, for which the prospects of the implementation of the Transbaikal Territory Development Strategy until 2030 are estimated. The initial state of the region social sphere is set on the basis of the assessment of the relevant industries capacities in customary measurement, the number and age structure of the population. That kind of assessment makes possible to determine the value of indicators of the provision of the population with social sector services in the base year. For a given long- term indicative plan, it is necessary to build up a forecast of the dynamics of the social sphere development within the given scenario of external conditions and assess the feasibility of the initial indicative plan. The mechanism of the formation of the expenditure part of the budget directed to the needs of social sectors is a decision- making algorithm based on forecasts of the incomes and needs of the industries in conjunction with the priority distribution procedures. The input parameters of such an algorithm are the applications of industries for budget financing in the structure of expenditures: labor costs, operating costs, capital expenditures. Numerical experiments while using the proposed model demonstrate the complex dependence of the final results not only on external conditions, but also on regional authorities’ regulatory influences (variants of the policy of leading indexation of tariffs and indexation of salaries in the social sphere). Analysis of the experiments results suggests that the proposed approach allows to solve not only the initial task of assessing the possibility of achieving the social services provision indicators’ planned values to the region’s population by a fixed moment. The model can also be used to solve the inverse problem – the task of determining the amount of resource provision (primarily financial) required implementing the indicative plan.

96-107 574
Abstract

The amount of investment megaprojects increases every year. Due to its technical complexity, high economic costs and dependence on multiple external factors, megaprojects often turn out to be economically ineffective. The probability of a project failure varies a lot depending on the industry and type of project. Statistically, hosting the Olympic Games projects are the ones to have the highest rates of frequency and percentage of cost overruns. The expenses related with these projects are constantly growing. The authors analyze the indicators of economic effectiveness of making investments in major infrastructural projects of Russian Federation. Hereafter, the authors study the experience of implementing such projects on the whole territory of Russia, and analyze in detail the results of creating and using the Olympic venues of Sochi-2014. The authors’ research has shown that payback periods of the Olympic venues vary from 19 (“Bolshoi” stadium) to 198 years (“Fisht” stadium). Clearly, these results do not correspond even to the Requirements of the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, defining economically effective projects as those with payback period less than or equal to 5 years. However, the implementation of such projects can be considered as the creation of public goods, with their further active use by the population of the country.

108-130 769
Abstract

This paper is devoted to a description of the results of the first part of the research project called «Stratification of the scientific community of economists and ranking of economic journals», developed by a temporary research team of the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS) and the National Research University «Higher School of Economics» in cooperation with the New Economic Association. The information base of the study was the opinion poll of economists – participants of The Third Russian Economic Congress «REC–2016» (December 2016), of The Moscow Economic Forum «MEF– 2017» (March 2017) and of The XVIII April International Scientific Conference on Economic and Social Development (April 2017). In the work, described in this article, a fundamentally new universal ranking algorithm of the analyzed publications is proposed, on the basis of sociological measurements of the opinion of the economists' community. The created algorithm is a combined, interconnected and interrelated solution of three theoretical problems: 1) the identification, using the method of principal components of the weight function of aggregating private ratings, reflecting the hidden relationships between the measured characteristics of the journals; 2) the construction of an iterative procedure for determining a subset of experts within the entire set of interviewed experts, or within the entire totality of interviewed experts, that correspond to the specified requirements, and, using their estimates, determination of the base count (aggregated) rating for each journal; 3) the selection of statistically dissimilar publication ratings, on the basis of the T-test for paired samples, and subsequent determination of homogeneous groups of journals, using a cluster analysis. We mean those journals – concerning close values of the base rating within each group and the significant differences between them. The results of a sociological survey of the scientific community of economists are presented, its structure is revealed and the absence of a statistically significant connection between the bibliometric indicators of the Russian Science Citation Index (the RSCI) and the estimates of journals, obtained on the basis of measuring of public opinion, is proved. The main result of the completed research is a methodological and an instrumental justification of the ranking of Russian economic journals and choice of the five categories of periodicals, on its basis.

HISTORY OF ECONOMICS

131-146 553
Abstract

The article examines the specifics and history of the formation of entrepreneurial ethics in pre-revolutionary Russia, as well as its transformations in the course of Russian revolutions, in the Soviet era during the New Economic Policy period. Research embraces the transformations in cooperative / artel types of business at a later stage, in the «shadow» system of private entrepreneurship, and finally, in the times of the late Soviet and post-Soviet reforms. It is shown that several stages of breaking the mass ethical norm «at the turns of the epochs» – could not but lead to serious destruction of the moral oriented basis of life in all social groups and in all strata of society. It is shown, that the «turns of the epochs» caused lasting and painful fractures between the outward normality of the state (the norms of written law) and the internal normality of citizens, communities and society (mass morality and the «customary law»). It is shown, that during the Soviet period, in the process of organizing economic life, authorities largely relied on the successive moral community specificity of mass self-awareness, including community forms of collective encouragement and punishment, as well as on religious ethical precepts transformed in the terminology of communism. It is established, that the late Soviet and post-Soviet so called «market» transformations of economic legislation, the purposeful discrediting of mass normative and ethical views of the Soviet era, as well as illegal and fraudulent privatization of substantial part of Soviet public property, led to deep chaos in the entire Russian institutional and regulatory system that ensures economic activity and social sustainability. It is shown, that this creates serious obstacles to the successful development of Russian statehood.

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ISSN 1609-1442 (Print)
ISSN 2618-8996 (Online)