Nеw Estimates of Demographic Damage from Road Accidents and Opportunities for Loss Management

Abstract

High mortality in road accidents is an urgent problem for Russia, which at the same time is underestimated. The calculation of the dynamics of the potentially unborn people due to the death of women in reproductive age in the road accidents showed that even in conditions of low birth rates, Russia annually loses thousands of people in the form of unrealized fertility potential. Moreover, the demographic damage that actually occurred in the past leads to the economic losses in future. The proposed model of demographic potentials allows us to calculate undervalued losses, both in demography and in the economy. It became obvious that economic losses due to the inertia of demographic processes are of a delayed nature. This means that it is impossible to avoid these losses, but they can be managed. The article offers one of the tools for such management. Since the demographic potential model allows us to obtain data on economic damage in the past, all the market participants can receive data in advance about the damage that has developed for the number of workers in a branch in the medium term. And thanks to the data on employment industry structure, we will be able to answer in advance where exactly the personnel shortage would develop. In the conditions of planned industrial foresights, as well as limited access to effective foreign technologies, it is really difficult to overestimate the importance of such knowledge.