Macroeconomic situation in the Russian economy in 2015-2016 and the prospects of economic growth

Abstract

The article presents the analysis of the factors determining changes in the macroeconomic situation in the Russian economy in 2015-2016. Consistently consider the relationship with the rest of the world, the dynamics of corporate profits, the distribution of total income between activities, changes in investment demand. In the final sections of the article the author briefly analyzes the features of fiscal and monetary policy pursued in 2015 and 2016, and its impact on the macroeconomic situation. It is concluded that in 2015-2016, the Russian economy has formed a new equilibrium, which creates the prerequisites for economic growth. Decreased surplus in the current account and the passive balance in financial account; decreased passive balances in services and investment income accounts. The main conclusion that can be drawn based on comparison of payments and balances for 2015 and 2016 and the number of previous years is that the increase in the value of exports is not a necessary condition of the balance of payments. It is possible to preserve an acceptable level of imports, even if falling world oil prices and a sharp reduction in export revenues, provided a favorable change (or targeted regulation) cross-border capital flows. Regulation of cross-border movement of capital is significantly less costly way to achieve equilibrium of the balance of payments than the increase in physical volumes of energy exports. Movement to a new equilibrium caused a number of positive effects: decreased the share of net exports in GDP; decreased in the value added redistributed in favor of industries and corporations that are export oriented; increased profits earned in the manufacturing sector, infrastructure sector, agriculture; reduced budget dependence on oil and gas revenues. Movement to a new equilibrium of the balance of payments helped to stabilize economy, however, it could not, by itself, to ensure the transition of the economy in the growth stage. For the resumption of growth it is need the momentum coming from investment government spending and consumer demand.