Aggrerated Simulation Model of Foreigh Economic Activity of the Russian Federation
Abstract
This article presents the developed aggregated simulation model of foreign economic interaction of the Russian Federation with partner countries. The bi-criterion optimization problem of the rational control of foreign trade activities is formulated and solved with consideration of the differently directed interests of the Russian Federation and partner countries. The possibilities of such links to be balanced are being studied depending on different scenarios reflecting the foreign trade strategy characteristic for the respective groups of countries (EU, APEC, EEC, etc.). The proposed simulation model implemented in AnyLogic allowed investigating the influence of the key control parameters of foreign economic activity on the characteristics of the interrelationships of the Russian Federation with other countries. Suboptimal (scenario) values of import duties and quotas that provide the best influence on the forecast dynamics of the foreign trade turnover of the Russian Federation are calculated.
Keywords
agent-based modeling foreign economic activity,
FEA,
AnyLogic,
import duties,
import quotas,
export economy,
foreign economic activity
Journal of Economic Literature (JEL): C02, C63
Supporting agencies: This work was completed with the partial support from the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (Project No. 18-51-45001).
About the Author
Gayané L. Beklaryan
Central Economics and Mathematics Institute of Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
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For citations:
Beklaryan G.L. Aggrerated Simulation Model of Foreigh Economic Activity of the Russian Federation. Economics of Contemporary Russia. 2018;(4):50-65. (In Russ.)
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