Russian Specific Factors of Economic Growth: Econometric Modeling
Abstract
The article reveals the features of factors of economic growth in Russia in conditions of global turbulence and “new normality”. The discussion on stimulating economic growth in Russia by monetary policy is analyzed. An econometric model that confirms the dependence of the level of monetization of the Russian economy on the dynamics of the monetary base determined by the central bank is given. Factors of economic growth that are significant for the Russian economy are highlighted, these factors are the dynamics of investment in fixed capital, the dynamics of world oil prices, and the dynamics of the real money supply. The article presents an econometric model that shows the dependence of the growth rate of Russia's real GDP on the three above factors. The forecast of the dynamics of Russia's GDP in 2018–2020 is given in comparison with the forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development. High importance of the factor of investments into fixed capital is underlined and the necessity of transition to a new, investment-oriented sovereign model of the Russian economy growth is justified.
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Review
For citations:
Tenyakov I.M. Russian Specific Factors of Economic Growth: Econometric Modeling. Economics of Contemporary Russia. 2018;(3):22-35. (In Russ.)
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