Model of Socio-Economic Systems Development Strategies and Forecasts Quality Estimate

The paper describes and analyzes the problems associated with present-day practice of strategic and forecast researches organization and carrying out, such as restricted applicability of competitive mechanism for these investigations’ executors choice, non-transparency of strategies and forecasts formation, bias of lead research executor, the lack of efficient monitoring of the research results by the customer, as well as the incorrectness of system research methodology. The new scheme of organization of these researches is justified. It is similar to the modern system of organization of applied investigations carried out in high-tech industry for new technologies development. To improve the quality of new managerial techniques development management the system of technology readiness (for practical application) levels is introduced. It provides strict monitoring of intermediate results of system researches. New managerial technology development process is clearly subdivided into separate stages, from the development of composition and structure of a simulated system to the computer models of large-scale systems development. Such a model can be used further repeatedly to construct the forecasts, strategies of the controlled systems development. Also in the paper a new economic-mathematical model is proposed for enterprises, industries, and countries strategies and forecasts development organization quality assessment. For this aim, society and its separate groups welfare models dependent on the policy performed were built. The model of optimal policy choice was also constructed, the process of the society utility evaluation function forming was described. The accuracy and quality parameters of management decisions taken from maximization of the function concerned were formalized. The influence of the proposed by the author’s new forecasts and strategies development organization on the quality of strategic management was investigated. Controlled system (enterprise, industry, national economy) «robustness» conditions to the biases of the society objective function and optimal policy were described.

прогнозные и стратегические исследования и разработки, крупномасштабная система, иерархическая модель, управленческие технологии, функция полезности общества, оценка общественного благосостояния, качество прогнозов и стратегий, forecast and strategic research and development, large-scale system, hierarchical model, management technologies, the society utility function, evaluation of social welfare, the quality of forecasts and strategies

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