The theory of evaluating investment project efficiency: a case of improper application

The article is devoted to the peculiarities of application of the theory of efficiency of economic activities in the practice of decision-making on implementation of long-term large-scale projects of transport infrastructure development. It is shown that the approaches accepted all over the world to prove the public efficiency of such projects on the basis of traditional criteria are untenable; they do not provide information on real economic results of the project for investors (economic entities, the state). The example of high-speed railways, proves that the decision to start implementation of the state long-term large-scale project of transport infrastructure development cannot be justified by calculations of commercial and public efficiency of the project in the classical sense of these terms due to the high level of uncertainty of basic cost and natural indicators over a period of 10–20 years or more, and the low level of objectivity in selection of directions of influence of the project on the economy and social life of the regions of influence. It is argued that the basis for implementation of such projects should be considered the proven need for transport services, which the project would first of all provide, as well as the possibility of creation and development of new promising technologies for the construction of transport facilities and provision of transport services. At the current stage of development, the need to maintain and develop production capacities in the most important sectors for the country’s economy, including the construction industry, mechanical engineering, metallurgy and others, can also be considered as such a basis.

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