Leading indicators as an instrument of economic forecasting
Abstract
A foreign experience of using economic indicators to predict economic crises and improve economic situation is regarded as useful for improving the forecasting system and for the enhancement of Russian economic security. Theoretical criteria and practical arguments being analyzed to apply indicators at different periods of economic development in changing economic dynamics. The evolution of application of such indicators in U.S. and in European countries is shown as well as the selection of the target indicator of economic dynamic. Four groups of economic variables are shown in this paper as the indicators of economic cycle change. The paper identifies situations when specific indicators show inefficiency which questioning the possibility of using indicators for forecasting. The existing views on such situations are shown and presented the further research directions with the specificity of various periods of technological development.
About the Author
Anna L. Bogdanova
Central Economics and Mathematics Institute Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
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For citations:
Bogdanova A.L. Leading indicators as an instrument of economic forecasting. Economics of Contemporary Russia. 2018;(2):35-56. (In Russ.)
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