Industrial revolutions and the evolution of economic sanctions

This research aims to explore the connection between the evolution of economic sanctions and industrial revolutions. Employing a phenomenon-­based research approach and a realist historical perspective, this paper investigates the dynamics and mechanisms underpinning the increasing number and sophistication of sanctions throughout successive industrial revolutions. We define economic sanctions as commercial and/or financial penalties applied by states or organizations against foreign states, public or private organizations, groups, or individuals. Our main proposition is: the number and character of sanctions correlate with industrial revolutions – ​radical transformations in technological systems and civil society. We argue that the evolution of sanctions from supplements to substitutes for warfare is linked to two major factors: 1) the shifting motives behind sanctions, particularly the increasing emphasis on maintaining national competitiveness; 2) the transformation in sanction techniques – ​from total trade and financial embargoes during Industrial Revolutions 1.0 and 2.0 to targeted “smart sanctions” focusing on critical and vulnerable entities during Industrial Revolution 3.0. Both factors are strongly related with the development of technological systems in developed countries, that also play the major role as sanctioning countries. We anticipate that these trends toward more sophisticated and targeted sanctions will intensify during the forthcoming Industrial Revolutions 4.0 and 5.0, even as the overall frequency of situations requiring sanctions is expected to decline.

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