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<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xml:lang="ru"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">ecr-journal</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="ru">Экономическая наука современной России</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Economics of Contemporary Russia</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">1609-1442</issn><issn pub-type="epub">2618-8996</issn><publisher><publisher-name>Regional Public Organization for Assistance to the Development of Institutions of the Department of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.33293/1609-1442-2022-1(96)-56-72</article-id><article-id custom-type="elpub" pub-id-type="custom">ecr-journal-749</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКАЯ ПОЛИТИКА И ХОЗЯЙСТВЕННАЯ ПРАКТИКА</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="en"><subject>ECONOMICAL POLICY AND ECONOMICAL PRACTICE</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Пенсионные реформы и теневой сектор: моделирование поведения доходных групп</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Pension Reforms and the Informal Sector: Modeling of Income Groups Behavior</trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Даниелян</surname><given-names>Владимир Александрович</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Danielyan</surname><given-names>Vladimir A.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>научный сотрудник, лаборатория математической экономики</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">v.danielyan@gmail.com</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Полтерович</surname><given-names>Виктор Меерович</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Polterovich</surname><given-names>Victor V.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>академик РАН, д.э.н., заведующий лабораторией математической экономики ЦЭМИ РАН, профессор кафедры общей экономической теории МШЭ МГУ</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">polterov@mail.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-2"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff-alternatives id="aff-1"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>Центральный экономико-математический институт РАН, Москва</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>Central Economics and Mathematics Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><aff-alternatives id="aff-2"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>Центральный экономико-математический институт РАН; &#13;
Московской школы экономики МГУ им. М.В. Ломоносова, Москва</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>Central Economics and Mathematics Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences;&#13;
Moscow School of Economics, MSU, Moscow</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2022</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>07</day><month>02</month><year>2022</year></pub-date><volume>0</volume><issue>1</issue><fpage>56</fpage><lpage>72</lpage><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright &amp;#x00A9; Даниелян В.А., Полтерович В.М., 2022</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2022</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Даниелян В.А., Полтерович В.М.</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Danielyan V.A., Polterovich V.V.</copyright-holder><license xml:lang="ru" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.</license-p></license><license xml:lang="en" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://www.ecr-journal.ru/jour/article/view/749">https://www.ecr-journal.ru/jour/article/view/749</self-uri><abstract><p>В статье авторов, опубликованной в 2018 г., была описана динамическая модель поведения совокупности агентов, принадлежащих разным доходным группам, при переходе от распределительной к смешанной пенсионной системе. Модель основана на предположении, что более состоятельные участники характеризуются меньшей нормой дисконтирования доходов, что фактически означает ориентацию на более длинный плановый горизонт. В данной работе мы предлагаем и исследуем усовершенствованную модель. С ее помощью удается значительно улучшить аппроксимацию траекторий, наблюдавшихся в Аргентине после пенсионной реформы 1993 г., во многом сходной с неудавшейся российской реформой 2002 г. Модель показывает, что с ростом дохода должна падать доля представителей соответствующей доходной группы, предпочитающих держаться в тени. Эта закономерность соответствует наблюдениям. Модель позволяет объяснить, почему во многих странах в результате пенсионных реформ происходило расширение теневого сектора. Исследовано влияние минимальной пенсии, доходности пенсионных накоплений и пенсионного возраста на уровни участия разных доходных групп в пенсионной системе. На основе полученных результатов сформулированы рекомендации для продолжения пенсионной реформы в России.</p></abstract><trans-abstract xml:lang="en"><p>A 2018 article by the authors described a dynamic behavior model of the agents’ population belonging to different income groups in the transition from a pay-as-you-go to a mixed pension system. The model is based on the assumption that wealthier participants are characterized by a lower rate of income discounting, which effectively means an orientation toward a longer planning horizon. In this paper we propose and explore an advanced model. It significantly improves the approximation of trajectories observed in Argentina after the pension reform of 1993, which is largely similar to the failed Russian reform of 2002. The model shows that as income increases, the share of the corresponding income group who prefers keeping in the shadows should fall. This pattern is consistent with observations. The model helps to explain why pension reforms in many countries have resulted in an expansion of the shadow sector. The impact of the minimum pension, the rate of return on pension savings and the retirement age on the levels of participation of different income groups in the pension system is studied. Based on the results, we formulate recommendations for continuing the pension reform in Russia.</p></trans-abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="ru"><kwd>пенсионная реформа</kwd><kwd>распределительная и накопительные системы</kwd><kwd>пенсионный возраст</kwd><kwd>минимальный стаж</kwd><kwd>теневой сектор</kwd><kwd>уровень участия</kwd></kwd-group><kwd-group xml:lang="en"><kwd>pension reform</kwd><kwd>pay-as-you-go system</kwd><kwd>fully-funded system</kwd><kwd>retirement age</kwd><kwd>minimum seniority</kwd><kwd>informal sector</kwd><kwd>participation level</kwd></kwd-group></article-meta></front><back><ref-list><title>References</title><ref id="cit1"><label>1</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Борисов К., Сурков А. (2007). Модель перекрывающихся поколений с двусторонним альтруизмом // Экономико-математические исследования: математические модели и информационные технологии. Т. VI. Сборник трудов Санкт-Петербургского экономико-математического института РАН. 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