ecr-journalЭкономическая наука современной РоссииEconomics of Contemporary Russia1609-14422618-8996Regional Public Organization for Assistance to the Development of Institutions of the Department of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciencesecr-journal-273Research ArticleАКТУАЛЬНЫЕ ПРОБЛЕМЫ ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКОЙ ТЕОРИИACTUAL PROBLEMS OF ECONOMICSОпережающие показатели – инструмент экономического прогнозированияLeading indicators as an instrument of economic forecastingБогдановаАнна ЛеонидовнаBogdanovaAnna L.

научный сотрудник

annabogd@gmail.comЦЭМИ РАН, МоскваРоссияCentral Economics and Mathematics Institute Russian Academy of Sciences, MoscowRussian Federation201803112018023556Copyright © Богданова А.Л., 20182018Богданова А.Л.Bogdanova A.L.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://www.ecr-journal.ru/jour/article/view/273

Зарубежный опыт использования экономических индикаторов для прогнозирования экономических кризисов и улучшения хозяйственной конъюнктуры рассматривается как полезный для совершенствования системы прогнозирования и повышения экономической безопасности российской экономики. Анализируются теоретические критерии и практические аргументы использования на разных этапах экономического развития индикаторов смены экономической динамики. Показана эволюция применения такого рода индикаторов в США и европейских странах, в том числе выбор базового индикатора экономической динамики. Представлены четыре группы экономических переменных, фигурирующих в качестве индикаторов смены фаз экономического цикла. Выявляются ситуации «неработоспособности» отдельных показателей, что ставит под сомнение саму возможность использования индикаторов в целях прогнозирования. Представлены имеющиеся точки зрения на такие ситуации, и намечается направление дальнейших исследований, связанное с учетом специфики разных этапов формирующих экономическую динамику технологических революций.

A foreign experience of using economic indicators to predict economic crises and improve economic situation is regarded as useful for improving the forecasting system and for the enhancement of Russian economic security. Theoretical criteria and practical arguments being analyzed to apply indicators at different periods of economic development in changing economic dynamics. The evolution of application of such indicators in U.S. and in European countries is shown as well as the selection of the target indicator of economic dynamic. Four groups of economic variables are shown in this paper as the indicators of economic cycle change. The paper identifies situations when specific indicators show inefficiency which questioning the possibility of using indicators for forecasting. The existing views on such situations are shown and presented the further research directions with the specificity of various periods of technological development.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.