ecr-journalЭкономическая наука современной РоссииEconomics of Contemporary Russia1609-14422618-8996Regional Public Organization for Assistance to the Development of Institutions of the Department of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences10.33293/1609-1442-2026-29(1)-73-88KMDALDecr-journal-1138Research ArticleЭКОНОМИЧЕСКАЯ ПОЛИТИКА И ХОЗЯЙСТВЕННАЯ ПРАКТИКАECONOMICAL POLICY AND ECONOMICAL PRACTICEФакторы движения прямых иностранных инвестиций в ЕАЭС в условиях фрагментации мировой экономикиDeterminants of foreign direct investment flows in the Eurasian Economic Union under conditions of global economic fragmentationhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-4606-1226ПереходСергей АлександровичPerekhodSergej A.

кандидат экономических наук, заведующий лабораторией «Фининвест», ассистент

PhD, head of the Fininvest Laboratory, assistant

saperekhod@fa.ruБабаевАлик ГалибовичBabaevAlik G.

руководитель группы внутреннего аудита Финансового департамента

head of the Internal Audit Group, Finance Department

agbabaev@yandex.ruФинансовый университета при Правительстве Российской Федерации, МоскваРоссияFinancial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, MoscowRussian FederationГК «Солар», МоскваРоссияSolar Group, MoscowRussian Federation2026140320262917388Copyright © Переход С.А., Бабаев А.Г., 20262026Переход С.А., Бабаев А.Г.Perekhod S.A., Babaev A.G.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://www.ecr-journal.ru/jour/article/view/1138

В статье анализируется влияние фрагментации мировой экономики и санкционного давления на движение прямых иностранных инвестиций в странах Евразийского экономического союза. Цель исследования заключается в выявлении ключевых детерминант притока и оттока инвестиций и оценке их динамики в условиях экономической фрагментации и внешних ограничений. Актуальность работы определяется недостаточным притоком инвестиций и преобладанием оттока капитала, что сдерживает устойчивое развитие ЕАЭС. Научная новизна состоит в комплексной эконометрической оценке как притока, так и оттока инвестиций в странах ЕАЭС за период 2010–2022 гг. с учетом институциональных, макроэкономических и финансовых факторов. В исследовании использованы панельные данные по пяти странам ЕАЭС. В качестве факторов рассматривались: ВВП, мировой ВВП, открытость торговли, уровень заработной платы, индекс свободы труда, уровень коррупции, производительность труда, политическая стабильность, процентная ставка, инфляция, финансовое развитие и обменный курс. Для анализа применены эконометрические модели Pooled OLS и фиксированных и случайных эффектов. Экономический рост способствует увеличению притока инвестиций, тогда как рост заработной платы снижает инвестиционную привлекательность. Для оттока капитала выявлена обратная зависимость от производительности труда. Наиболее адекватной для объяснения притока оказалась модель со случайными эффектами, для анализа оттока — ​модель с фиксированными эффектами. Динамика инвестиций в ЕАЭС определяется размером рынка, макроэкономической стабильностью и издержками на труд. Для повышения инвестиционной привлекательности и устойчивости к внешним шокам предлагается углубление финансовой интеграции в рамках ЕАЭС, расширение сотрудничества с азиатскими партнерами и внедрение цифровых валют.

The article analyzes the impact of global economic fragmentation and sanctions pressure on foreign direct investment (FDI) flows in the countries of Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). The purpose of the study is to identify the key determinants of FDI inflows and outflows and to assess their dynamics under economic fragmentation and external restrictions. The relevance is determined by the insufficient inflow of FDI and the predominance of capital outflows, which limited sustainable development in the EAEU. The novelty of the research consists in the simultaneous econometric assessment of both inflows and outflows of FDI in the region over the period of 2010–2022, taking into account institutional, macroeconomic, and financial factors. The study is based on a panel dataset for five EAEU countries, with econometric analysis using Pooled OLS, Fixed Effects, and Random Effects models. The findings indicate that economic growth stimulates FDI inflows, while high wages reduce investment attractiveness. An inverse relationship of outflows and labor productivity was revealed. The Random effects model best explains inflows, while Fixed effects model more accurately capture the outflows. The dynamics of FDI in the EAEU are determined by market size, macroeconomic stability, and labor costs. To increase resilience to external shocks and enhance investment attractiveness the study recommends strengthening financial integration within the EAEU, expanding cooperation with Asian partners, and introducing digital currencies.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.